The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
While it may be true that investing in heating-related businesses is quite lucrative, the author's arguments are built upon several assumptions and rife with flaws. The validity of these assumptions are vital for the implementation and success of the investment.
To begin with, despite the tradition of using oil to heat in northeastern United States, the author assumes oil is still the major fuel source currently. There is no concrete evidence, however, showing the use of fuel for heating in the area. For example, as electricity is becoming affordable to more people, it is probable that many residents are now switching to electricity for heating. Before these assumptions and many others alike are thoroughly considered, it would be reckless for the firm to make the general conclution that investing in oil-related fields are still profitable.
Additionally, another point in this argument that needs to be viewed with caution is that winters in the region are predicted to be colder than normal in coming years. In fact, it is unadvisable for the firm to accept the climate forecasters unconditionally, assuming that the claims made are accurate. Typically, weather reports can hardly be precise beyond several days, let alone years. What is more, climate change and global warming are making the cilmate more unpredictable and warmer, even in winter.
Last but not least, even if oil will remain the major fuel for heating in the area, it does not necessarily mean that investing in oil-related firms are recommended. This bold assumption is logically flawed, ignoring some of the pertinent problems. For instance, if the oil price slumps, profit would certainly be limited for retailers. On the contrary, the heating devices using oil as energy source may become popular under this circumstance. Therefore, recommending the client to invest in Consolidated Industries is as risky as it is ungrounded.
In sum, finding the trends and demands in the market does falicitate the investment firms. But before drawing any conclusion, it is imperative for the author to consider many related questions, instead of relying on intuitive and unwarranted assumptions.
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 7, column 218, Rule ID: SOME_OF_THE[1]
Message: Simply use 'some'.
Suggestion: some
...ssumption is logically flawed, ignoring some of the pertinent problems. For instance, if th...
^^^^^^^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
but, however, if, may, so, still, therefore, while, for example, for instance, in fact, on the contrary, to begin with, what is more
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 27.0 19.6327345309 138% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 6.0 12.9520958084 46% => OK
Conjunction : 9.0 11.1786427146 81% => OK
Relative clauses : 7.0 13.6137724551 51% => More relative clauses wanted.
Pronoun: 19.0 28.8173652695 66% => OK
Preposition: 41.0 55.5748502994 74% => OK
Nominalization: 11.0 16.3942115768 67% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 1836.0 2260.96107784 81% => OK
No of words: 344.0 441.139720559 78% => More content wanted.
Chars per words: 5.33720930233 5.12650576532 104% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.30665032142 4.56307096286 94% => OK
Word Length SD: 3.00722493985 2.78398813304 108% => OK
Unique words: 198.0 204.123752495 97% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.575581395349 0.468620217663 123% => OK
syllable_count: 582.3 705.55239521 83% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.7 1.59920159681 106% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 6.0 4.96107784431 121% => OK
Interrogative: 1.0 0.471057884232 212% => OK
Article: 4.0 8.76447105788 46% => OK
Subordination: 5.0 2.70958083832 185% => OK
Conjunction: 1.0 1.67365269461 60% => OK
Preposition: 7.0 4.22255489022 166% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 17.0 19.7664670659 86% => OK
Sentence length: 20.0 22.8473053892 88% => OK
Sentence length SD: 35.7914953846 57.8364921388 62% => OK
Chars per sentence: 108.0 119.503703932 90% => OK
Words per sentence: 20.2352941176 23.324526521 87% => OK
Discourse Markers: 7.76470588235 5.70786347227 136% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 1.0 5.25449101796 19% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 9.0 8.20758483034 110% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 5.0 6.88822355289 73% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 3.0 4.67664670659 64% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.28111137039 0.218282227539 129% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0851134361859 0.0743258471296 115% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0726322617663 0.0701772020484 103% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.141543663988 0.128457276422 110% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.101553237776 0.0628817314937 161% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 13.8 14.3799401198 96% => OK
flesch_reading_ease: 42.72 48.3550499002 88% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 12.3 12.197005988 101% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 13.69 12.5979740519 109% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 9.36 8.32208582834 112% => OK
difficult_words: 103.0 98.500998004 105% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 11.0 12.3882235529 89% => OK
gunning_fog: 10.0 11.1389221557 90% => OK
text_standard: 14.0 11.9071856287 118% => OK
What are above readability scores?
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Rates: 62.5 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 3.75 Out of 6 -- The score is based on the average performance of 20,000 argument essays. This e-grader is not smart enough to check on arguments.
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.