Disputes Strain Ukrainian-Russian Ties

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24 September 2008

The deterioration of relations between Ukraine and Russia accelerated after Kyiv sided with Georgia during last month's conflict in South Ossetia. Worsening ties coincide with next year's expiration of the bilateral Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation and Partnership, which both sides ratified in April 1999. The strategic 10-year agreement will be automatically extended, unless Ukraine or Russia declares its intention not to do so within six months of the expiration. The deadline for signaling such intent is October 1. While observers say it is likely to be renewed, the treaty is being reviewed by politicians, experts, and military officials on both sides. VOA Correspondent Peter Fedynsky has this report from a review conference in Moscow.

The Friendship Treaty has been tested in recent months as Moscow protested Ukrainian overtures to NATO and Kyiv accused Russia of seeking to destabilize Crimea by issuing passports to Russian residents of the Ukrainian Black Sea peninsula.

A member of the Ukrainian parliament, Dmytro Tabachnyk, noted public opinion polls, which show that Ukrainians took a dim view of Russian actions during last month's conflict with Georgia.

Tabachnyk says surveys indicate every fourth resident of Kyiv had a more negative opinion of Russia following the Georgian conflict and only every tenth had a better view. The Ukrainian lawmaker adds that failure to extend the Friendship Treaty will undermine the position of Ukrainian intellectuals and politicians who favor neutrality on the NATO issue.

Ruslan Greenberg, an economist at the Russian Academy of Sciences, said a NATO veto on Ukrainian military cooperation with Russia would be an economic catastrophe for his country. He noted, however, that neither country has met hopes of developing a First World economy, and in some regards have approached Third World standards. Greenberg added that whatever their position on NATO, most influential Ukrainian politicians will never stop moving in the direction of the European Union.

The economist says Russia should seek associate EU membership, or to have relations with the trading bloc similar to those of Switzerland or Norway, who have no representation in Brussels, but participate in a single European economic space. He says the only realistic and pragmatic approach for Ukraine and Russia is to both find a place in that European space.

The Foreign Ministry of Russia recently issued a statement saying Ukraine's desire for speedy NATO entry violates the spirit of the bilateral Friendship Treaty and Russian interests. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry response said Moscow can contribute to positive development of their ties, if it realizes the fact that Ukraine's decision to acquire EU and NATO membership is irreversible.