"Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulty obtaining reliable supplies of high-quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our popular alpaca overcoat. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resume production. Given the outcry from our customers when we discontinued this product and the fact that none of our competitors offers a comparable product, we can expect pent-up consumer demand for our alpaca coats. Due to this demand and the overall increase in clothing prices, we can predict that Sartorian's alpaca overcoats will be more profitable than ever before."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
The author of the argument states that the company should start production of Alpaca overcoat again after five years in order to make a substantial profit. However, the premises upon which he puts his claim are fallacious. For the support of which some critical, yet ignored question need to be addressed.
The first assumption that lacks some semblance of truth and can be overtly impugned is that having good suppliers of high-quality wool fabric make it necessary to start production. However, it does not lend credence to the argument since a question that might arise is whether people are still interested in these materials. One point that should be considered is that although people were interested in high-quality wool fabric five years ago, there is no guarantee people still prefer to use these materials as five years ago. With the advent of new technologies and new fashion, people may prefer to put on clothes based on latest fashion. It is also important to say that there is no guarantee new wool fabric be still in a high- quality.
The author also holds the view that none of the competitors offered a suitable product during these years. Although it might seem tenable at a face, it has some defects since you can always ask this question if other companies still offer wool fabric materials. One of the main, if not the only, problem with the premise is that maybe other competitors totally have changed their productions and are offering new materials that are appealing to consumers. So, in this way, stop production of old materials and replace them with the new one could be beneficial for the company. Moreover, maybe competitors stopped production of overcoat due to the lack of demands.
Putting the two previous assumptions aside, there is still room for doubt. As set forth by the author overall increase in clothes' prices could be profitable for the company because people pay more for the clothes. Nevertheless, the rationale behind this premise could be challenged owing to an unsettled question if an increase in the price of other clothes means people pay the same amount of money for Alpaca overcoat. One point that should not go unnoticed is that maybe other companies use expensive materials in their clothes and produce high-quality clothes, which are easy to put on. There is no guarantee people pay the same amount of money for this coat. So, this may put future marketing of the company in trouble.
Having scrutinized all the premises, a logical conclusion that can be drawn is that there are a number of questions having been ignored by the author while the answer of which could add to the logic of each premise.
Comments
Essay evaluation report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 4.0 out of 6
Category: Good Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 20 15
No. of Words: 452 350
No. of Characters: 2165 1500
No. of Different Words: 210 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.611 4.7
Average Word Length: 4.79 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.511 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 148 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 110 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 71 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 49 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 22.6 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 8.303 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.75 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.303 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.526 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.087 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, first, however, if, may, moreover, nevertheless, so, still, while
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 27.0 19.6327345309 138% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 15.0 12.9520958084 116% => OK
Conjunction : 6.0 11.1786427146 54% => More conjunction wanted.
Relative clauses : 18.0 13.6137724551 132% => OK
Pronoun: 33.0 28.8173652695 115% => OK
Preposition: 54.0 55.5748502994 97% => OK
Nominalization: 13.0 16.3942115768 79% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2220.0 2260.96107784 98% => OK
No of words: 452.0 441.139720559 102% => OK
Chars per words: 4.91150442478 5.12650576532 96% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.61088837703 4.56307096286 101% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.57479164984 2.78398813304 92% => OK
Unique words: 213.0 204.123752495 104% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.471238938053 0.468620217663 101% => OK
syllable_count: 690.3 705.55239521 98% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.5 1.59920159681 94% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 4.0 4.96107784431 81% => OK
Article: 6.0 8.76447105788 68% => OK
Subordination: 3.0 2.70958083832 111% => OK
Conjunction: 1.0 1.67365269461 60% => OK
Preposition: 2.0 4.22255489022 47% => More preposition wanted as sentence beginning.
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 20.0 19.7664670659 101% => OK
Sentence length: 22.0 22.8473053892 96% => OK
Sentence length SD: 49.6780635693 57.8364921388 86% => OK
Chars per sentence: 111.0 119.503703932 93% => OK
Words per sentence: 22.6 23.324526521 97% => OK
Discourse Markers: 3.55 5.70786347227 62% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 0.0 5.25449101796 0% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 9.0 8.20758483034 110% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 8.0 6.88822355289 116% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 3.0 4.67664670659 64% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.135723945983 0.218282227539 62% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0433103035664 0.0743258471296 58% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.046258247731 0.0701772020484 66% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.074784588554 0.128457276422 58% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.051680210091 0.0628817314937 82% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 13.0 14.3799401198 90% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 57.61 48.3550499002 119% => OK
smog_index: 3.1 7.1628742515 43% => Smog_index is low.
flesch_kincaid_grade: 10.7 12.197005988 88% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 11.49 12.5979740519 91% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 7.87 8.32208582834 95% => OK
difficult_words: 90.0 98.500998004 91% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 10.5 12.3882235529 85% => OK
gunning_fog: 10.8 11.1389221557 97% => OK
text_standard: 11.0 11.9071856287 92% => OK
What are above readability scores?
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Rates: 58.33 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 3.5 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.