The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
The letter argues that because there will be an increased demand for heating oil at the northeastern areas, a client should invest in Consolidated Industries. To support this recommendation, the author cites the fact that most of homes in the northeastern U.S. have used oil as their major fuel for heating and that climate forecasters predict that the region have experienced 90 days with below0nrmal temperatures. The writer also points out that many new homes are built there. However, the recommendation takes many unwarranted assumptions for granted so that it is not persuasive as it stands.
First, the author appeals to the fact that the region experienced and will experience 90 days of below-normal temperatures. From the fact above, the author reasons that residents of the region consume more oil for heating. The author here assumes that most of residents would heat their home whenever the temperature is below the normal. Yet, there is no substantiating evidence suggested in the letter. Due to absence of evidence, it is entirely possible that most of the residents are immune to cold weather so that without only a few days they do not heat their homes. If so, then the usage of oil would not be increased, and the investment in Consolidated Industries would not be beneficial.
Secondly, the author cites recent trend in the northeast area that recent population growth cause building new homes and concludes that oil consumption for oil would be increased. The author assumes that the new homes use oil for heating as extant homes are. However, the author provides no evidence for it. It is possible that new homes are using solar power for heating. Then, though new homes are built and population of the region is increased, oil consumption would not be increased enough for increment of the company’s benefit.
Finally, although all the above assumptions turn out to be true, investment to Consolidated industries would not be recommended, since the author assumes that additional consumption of oil for heating would be sold by the company. However, the author fails to substantiate it. It could be that other oil retail companies preempt the additional market share. Then despite of increased demand of heating oil, the Consolidate companies’ revenue would not be changed at all. Or, it is equally possible that heating oil is just one of sources that the company’s revenue comes from so that increasing in that portion would be little effect on total benefit of the company. In these possible scenarios, investment to the company would not be a preferable option.
In sum, the recommendation fails to persuade me as it stands. To strengthen the validity of the recommendation, the author should take survey of heating tendency with respect to temperature in that area. And to better asses the investment advice, I also need to know correlation between the expected additional oil consumption and the company’s benefit.
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Comments
Essay evaluation report
argument 1 -- not exactly. It said that:
'Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. ', but it didn't say how many days for above-normal temperatures.
argument 2 -- OK
argument 3 -- OK
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Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 3.5 out of 6
Category: Satisfactory Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 24 15
No. of Words: 482 350
No. of Characters: 2409 1500
No. of Different Words: 200 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.686 4.7
Average Word Length: 4.998 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.835 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 170 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 127 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 84 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 67 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 20.083 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 9.027 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.583 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.329 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.509 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.104 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 1, column 223, Rule ID: MOST_SOME_OF_NNS[1]
Message: After 'most of', you should use 'the' ('most of the homes') or simply say ''most homes''.
Suggestion: most of the homes; most homes
...ndation, the author cites the fact that most of homes in the northeastern U.S. have used oil ...
^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Line 3, column 253, Rule ID: MOST_SOME_OF_NNS[1]
Message: After 'most of', you should use 'the' ('most of the residents') or simply say ''most residents''.
Suggestion: most of the residents; most residents
...r heating. The author here assumes that most of residents would heat their home whenever the temp...
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Line 7, column 408, Rule ID: A_INFINITVE[1]
Message: Probably a wrong construction: a/the + infinitive
...ite of increased demand of heating oil, the Consolidate companies' revenue would not be ch...
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, finally, first, however, if, second, secondly, so, then, with respect to
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 25.0 19.6327345309 127% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 16.0 12.9520958084 124% => OK
Conjunction : 7.0 11.1786427146 63% => OK
Relative clauses : 22.0 13.6137724551 162% => OK
Pronoun: 39.0 28.8173652695 135% => Less pronouns wanted
Preposition: 56.0 55.5748502994 101% => OK
Nominalization: 22.0 16.3942115768 134% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2495.0 2260.96107784 110% => OK
No of words: 482.0 441.139720559 109% => OK
Chars per words: 5.17634854772 5.12650576532 101% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.68556276237 4.56307096286 103% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.99850817748 2.78398813304 108% => OK
Unique words: 212.0 204.123752495 104% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.439834024896 0.468620217663 94% => More unique words wanted or less content wanted.
syllable_count: 765.9 705.55239521 109% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 5.0 4.96107784431 101% => OK
Article: 15.0 8.76447105788 171% => OK
Subordination: 4.0 2.70958083832 148% => OK
Conjunction: 2.0 1.67365269461 119% => OK
Preposition: 6.0 4.22255489022 142% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 24.0 19.7664670659 121% => OK
Sentence length: 20.0 22.8473053892 88% => OK
Sentence length SD: 56.4066183814 57.8364921388 98% => OK
Chars per sentence: 103.958333333 119.503703932 87% => OK
Words per sentence: 20.0833333333 23.324526521 86% => OK
Discourse Markers: 3.25 5.70786347227 57% => More transition words/phrases wanted.
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 3.0 5.25449101796 57% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 10.0 8.20758483034 122% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 7.0 6.88822355289 102% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 7.0 4.67664670659 150% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.266715828122 0.218282227539 122% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0857293359707 0.0743258471296 115% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0693495409288 0.0701772020484 99% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.165021927066 0.128457276422 128% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0839861104956 0.0628817314937 134% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 13.0 14.3799401198 90% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 51.18 48.3550499002 106% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 11.1 12.197005988 91% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 12.76 12.5979740519 101% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.04 8.32208582834 97% => OK
difficult_words: 104.0 98.500998004 106% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 11.5 12.3882235529 93% => OK
gunning_fog: 10.0 11.1389221557 90% => OK
text_standard: 13.0 11.9071856287 109% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 66.67 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 4.0 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.