The following appeared in a memo to the board of directors of a company that specializes in the delivery of heating oil."Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for he

In this argument, the author predicts that the requirement of heating oil will increase in the next five years. This conclusion is based on the 90 days with below-normal temperatures last heating season, the prediction from climate forecasters and the trend of more houses being built for population growth. Nonetheless, the author fails to provide some evidence which is crucial for the validity of his argument.

The author mentions that the region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and according to climate forecasters, he premises that the weather was cold. Apparently he holds that 90 days with colder weather can reflect the wholly decrease of temperature in that region. However, considering the rule that the general weather condition is based on the average temperature during a period, it might be possible that the rest days in the winter was distinctly above normal temperatures. In this case, weather in that region was warmer instead of colder. Therefore, additional statistics about the temperature of the rest days in winter are needed to reflect the general weather condition of the region. Besides, more evidence is required to ensure the liability of climate prediction.

In spite of the climate trend, it could hardly be asserted that the new-built houses are due to the recent popular growth. The author clearly implies the existence of the correlation between two simultaneous occurrences. Yet there is a probability that new houses are merely built by the existing population with hope for investing for the future. Therefore it is essential for the author to give cogent details as to ascertain that the new homes being built are in response to this increase in the population instead of some future planning or for the existing population itself.

Even though the trend of the weather getting cold and the increase of houses are both believable, the author should not come to the assertion that a larger number of houses will promote the demand of heating oil. Obviously, he assumes that these houses will still use oil as their major fuel for heating. but one can not deny the possibility that due to the reform of technology, new built house can use alternative energy resources such as solar power instead, which will no longer require the use of oil. Consequently, some important details of energy supply of houses and necessary comparisons between various energy resources should be provided to determine residents’ choice.

To sum up, the author tend to predict an increased demand of heating oil, yet he needs to give more evidence for improving the validity of this argument .