The following appeared in a memo to the board of directors of a company that specializes in the delivery of heating oil."Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for he

In the above argument, the author based on some information concludes that the request for heating oil in the northeastern united states, will increase in next five years. But, being accurate on the argument reveals that, the author fails to present strong evidences that can corroborates the argument,effectively.

The first evidence that should be provided is that, whether the demand for heating oil increased during last year winter that people experienced 90 days under normal temperatures.The author did not mention any statistics of last year oil consumption. If such increase happened, it could bolster the idea that the consumption will get higher during next five year, but if not, so the argument is not valid enough.

Further, it should be investigated that do residents of these areas hold any new measurements to combat unusual coldness or not. It is possible that they use heat non-conductive materials like windows and doors in building new homes or people change their lifestyle in order to decrease energy consumption. Such evidences will show that the expected increasing trend may not happen in next five years.

And the other point is that, Does growth population impact the oil usage, significantly? There should be evidence that shows how will this trend continue? Is it a constant increase until five years or not?

Also, it should be assured that there is no other alternative heating fuel in this region or will not come through until next five years. If the other one has existed it may replace heating oil and the author’s conclusion will not get true.

In addition there should be evidence that will this weather pattern continue for next five years? It is not clarified that forecasters have expected this pattern for how many next years?

So, it could be seen that there are several evidences that author ignored them, while they are necessary to be presented in order to increase the credibility of the argument.