The following appeared as a recommendation by a committee planning a ten-year budget for the city of Calatrava."The birthrate in our city is declining: in fact, last year's birthrate was only one-half that of five years ago. Thus the number of students en

The committee believes that in the following decade the number of students of the public schools will decrease in the city of Calatrava. This conclusion is grounded in a comparison between the birth rate in the last year and the birthrate in five years ago; the last year’s birthrate is one half of the 5 years ago. Following this decrease, the committee concludes that the town can transfer the budget from funding children-related activities to adult-related facilities and programs and cover the adults’ needs. The lack of supporting evidence in the statement above makes the statement untenable.

First, we need a statistical evidence showing a constant decrease of the children's population. Merely comparing two different periods does not definitely show that the decrease in the birthrate is happening. It is possible that in the last year a temporary breakage of an illness has caused miscarriages and it only affected the birthrate of the last year’s pregnancies and now it returned to the normal rate. Furthermore, even if the decrease happened, the extrapolation of the decrease of the birthrate to following years is not supported by any evidence. It is possible that birthrate goes up suddenly this year and only there are few years that demands of students are decreased. The transfer of the budget to the adults’ manners can only be justified if there is a constant trend in the decrease of the population in the following year.

Secondly, still assuming that the birthrate is heading a constant decline in the city, the committee should incorporate evidence into the statement showing that in no other way the population can increase. It is possible that the population is increasing due to an influx of the population from the other places. Migration to the town can sufficiently increase the number of children and render the whole conclusion as an invalid one.

Finally, the committee needs economic evidences showing that the transferred money would cover the adults’ public demands. The demands of adults in their facilities and programs might be so much higher that such a transfer may not make any progress in meeting them. Even if the costs are near and are corresponding, then the committee needs evidence showing that the inflation and other factors will not affect the prices in the following ten years. Otherwise, the prediction would be a fallacy.

In short, the obvious lack of several vital evidence makes the argument untenable. There are equivocal conditions in the argument defying any certain interpretation. To evaluate the argument evenhandedly, the committee needs to provide the enumerated firm evidence.