"The population on Balmer Island doubles during the summer months. During the summer, then, the town council of Balmer Island should decrease the maximum number of moped rentals allowed at each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 5

In this letter, a person suggests to reduce the number of summertime accidents by decreasing maximal allowed moped and bicycle rental number for the reason that the population in Balmer Island would double during summer months as well as Torseau reduced moped accidents successfully by implementing this method. At first glance, this argument seems plausible, however, a close scrutinize reveals its untenability.

First, the author mistakenly relates the number of mopeds to the number of moped accidents. There are other possible reasons which can lead to the same results, such as the lack of strict transportation regulations about moped and the absence of secure conscientiousness of pedestrians and bikers. Without ruling out these possibilities, the author cannot conclude the reduction of the number of mopeds can successfully decrease the number of moped accidents. Furthermore, more exotic people would exist during summer months, and there would be more accidents if those people did not have enough secure conscientiousness.

Second, suppose that the number of mopeds is proportional to the number of moped accidents, the limits of the number of moped rentals cannot ensure the less total number of mopeds. Even if the government controls the moped rental number, residents can buy new or second-hand mopeds by themselves. More residents also means more purchased mopeds. And if this condition is true, the increasing number of mopeds would cause more mopeds accidents in Balmer.

Finally, besides limitation of rental mopeds, the success of reducing moped accidents in Torseau may be caused by many factors. Perhaps the number of residents decreased significantly in the last year. Or with the limitation of rental mopeds, the bikers were educated throughly in improving secure conscientiousness. Or policy makers have implemented strict moped transportation rules. Without accounted for these possible reasons and only limiting the number or rental mopeds, the author cannot conclude that this limitation will be effective in reducing the moped accidents.

In conclusion, the author fails to prove the effectiveness of limitation policy. To make the argument more persuasive, the author should provide the detailed policy of reducing moped accidents in Torseau and more precise prediction of the total number of mopeds when rental moped is limited.