The following appeared as a recommendation by a committee planning a ten-year budget for the city of Calatrava."The birthrate in our city is declining: in fact, last year's birthrate was only one-half that of five years ago. Thus the number of students en

A first look at the recommendation above seems sound. However, the underlying assumptions and conclusion drawn by the writer is flawed because the claims are not and the associations drawn by the writer are not supported by cogent proofs.

The writers draws a weak correlation between lower birthrates and enrollment rates. To validate this recommendation, the writer has to show that the current trend would hold in the following years. Also, the writer has to show that holding other factors constant lower birthrates would lead to lower enrollment rates. Some factors the writer has to consider include the number of people that move into the city and the family structure, or adoption rates in the city. For instance if residents adopt kids rather than birth kids, the writer’s argument is weakened.

The writer further draws an spurious association between lower enrollment rates and financing public schools. Even if enrollment rates are reduced factors such as inflation and new educational technology may increase education spending. The failure to show how lower enrollment rates reduces education spending also weakens the writer’s conclusions.

Furthermore, the writer assumes that only children use athletic and recreational facilities. This premise is flawed because both adults and children use such facilities and adults may not use recreational facilities provided by the city. In addition, the writer fails to consider “new adults” that would relocate to other cities, To validate this claim, the writer can show that currently only children utilize these facilities and show future trends that the current adult and expected adults would continue to reside in the city and require these facilities.

In conclusion, the premises and recommendation stated by the writer is unconvincing and faulty. The writer needs to show that lower birth rate is the only factor responsible for lower enrollment rates. The call for reduced spending is invalid because even if there are lower enrollment rates, costs of education may increase thus weakening his claim. Likewise, the assumption that only children use recreational facilities is unsubstantiated