Washington
20 June 2008
Recent public opinion polls in the U.S. presidential race give DemocratBarack Obama a lead over Republican John McCain. But the lead is lessthan expected given some Democratic advantages this election year. VOANational correspondent Jim Malone has more from Washington.
Recentsurveys give Senator Obama a lead of between three and six percentagepoints over Senator McCain with the election a little more than fourmonths away.
Democrats are encouraged about their chances ofwinning back the White House this year after eight years of Republicancontrol under President Bush.
But some Republicans arepleasantly surprised at the closeness of the race given the public'sgeneral unhappiness with the economy, the war in Iraq and Mr. Bush'stenure.
Quinnipiac University pollster Clay Richards says alarge number of voters apparently have already made up their mindsabout which candidate to support in November.
"Between 75 and 80percent of voters said that their minds are made up," he noted. "So,the campaign, at this very early point, may come down to a battle forabout 20 to 25 percent of the voters, with the rest having already committed."
Arecent Quinnipiac poll in three crucial battleground states in Novemberfound that economic concerns were pushing more working class voters tosupport Obama. Those states were Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida, allexpected to be competitive in November.
Obama had troublewinning working class support in his primary battles with former rivalHillary Clinton, but pollster Clay Richards says he appears to bemaking some inroads.
"Obama is doing better among them thanother Democratic candidates have done in the past," he added. "And ifhe maintains this kind of lead, or this kind of balance among bluecollar whites, he will probably carry these three states."
RepublicanJohn McCain finds himself in the difficult position of trying tosucceed an unpopular president from his own party at a time whenAmericans are worried about the economy and rising fuel prices andbelieve the country is headed in the wrong direction.
McCain hasstaked his presidential hopes on the belief that Americans would prefervictory in the war in Iraq to a hasty withdrawal of U.S. troops.
Quinnipiacpollster Peter Brown says Americans have concluded the Iraq war was notworth the cost, but he adds that they remain divided on what to do next.
"Bya 2-1 margin, voters think the war was a mistake," he noted. "But whenwe asked them where do we want to go from here and give them twochoices. One, the McCain position of no fixed timetable for withdrawaland make the decision based on the security situation on the ground,and the Obama approach of a fixed timetable, they are basically splitdown the middle."
Senator McCain will emphasize his experiencein the military and in Congress in the campaign, and will argue thatObama has too little experience in foreign policy and national securitymatters.
Brookings Institution political scholar Thomas Mann says Senator Obama has some work to do in that area.
"Somepeople have doubts about his qualifications as commander in chief," heexplained. "So, he has a hurdle to clear, a threshold to reach that heis trustworthy on matters pertaining to national security."
Anotherfactor that could keep the election close is Senator McCain's provenappeal to moderate and independent voters, who often tip the electionin favor of one candidate over another.
Democrats argue that McCain's close support of President Bush's policy on Iraq would lead to what they call a third Bush term.
Butanalyst John Fortier of the American Enterprise Institute contendsMcCain may be able to counter some of those expected Democraticattacks.
"McCain does have the ability to distance himselffrom Bush, though, more than other Republicans," he said. "He isnot somebody with a newly found moderation. McCain goes a long wayback where he has been something of a maverick and opposing Bush, so Ithink he is going to be more able to resist that sort of criticism."
McCainalso faces a lingering challenge in trying to shore up support amongconservative Republicans. Some conservatives distrust McCain and havebeen unhappy in the past when he has disagreed with President Bush andbeen critical of the Republican Party.