Report Says Somalia, Sudan Destabilizing East African Region

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By Alisha Ryu
Nairobi
27 June 2008
Earlier this week, a global survey of states most at risk of failurenamed Somalia and Sudan as the top two most unstable countries in theworld. As VOA correspondent Alisha Ryu reports from our East AfricaBureau in Nairobi, both African countries are embroiled in complexinternal and external conflicts that are destabilizing neighboringcountries and threatening tens of millions of people.   

Professor Eric Reeves at SmithCollege in the United States says second-ranked Sudan suffers from theopposite problem in that there is too much power concentrated in onegroup in the center. Reeves has been observing the African country formore than a decade.

He says despite a peace agreement in 2005that ended Sudan's two decade-long civil war between Sudan'sArab-dominated government in Khartoum and African rebels in the south,Khartoum is still refusing to share power and cracking down on anyonetrying to challenge its rule.

"The history of Sudan is a historyof conflict between the center and the periphery, between Khartoum andthe peripheral areas that have been marginalized politically andeconomically," he explained. "I am not sure how the regime doessurvive, except by ruthless control of the military and the securityapparatus."

Sudan is Africa's largest country with multipleethnic, religious, and socio-economic groups. It is home to threeregional conflicts - in the south, west, and east - which pits localrebel groups against the ruling Islamist National Congress Party inKhartoum.

The conflict in the western Darfur region has been themain focus of international attention in recent years. Since rebelsrose up against Khartoum in 2003, attacks by government forces andallied militias have led to the deaths of 200,000 civilians andthe displacement of more than two million others.

Security inDarfur has continued to deteriorate, exacerbated by fighting betweenrebel factions and an escalating proxy war between Sudan andneighboring Chad, which is also threatening to destabilize the CentralAfrican Republic.

Reeves says Sudan's future as a nation appears uncertain at best.

"Weare in a period of time, where there seems to be no exit from adisastrous Darfur strategy other than to continue to keep four millionpeople on the verge of destruction," he added. "There is no real peacein the east. And we have a great deal of instability in south Sudanwith the crisis around Abyei on the border between south and northSudan. We have to pay attention because this is a very, very importantcountry. It borders nine other countries in Africa and its collapsewould have an enormous impact from Kenya to Libya to Chad to theCentral African Republic."

Five other countries in sub-SaharanAfrica - Zimbabwe, Chad, Congo-Kinshasa, Ivory Coast, and the CentralAfrican Republic - were among the top 10 most unstable in the FailedStates Index.

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