Feb 23, 2017
The events surrounding the death of Kim Jong Nam continue to evolve. While authorities haven't been able to identify the cause of death yet, police have expanded their suspect list to include Hyon Kwang Song, the second secretary at the North Korean embassy in Malaysia, and two other North Koreans. Authorities also have asked Interpol to apprehend four North Koreans who left the country following the assault.
North Korea's Central News Agency blamed Malaysia for the death and accused the country of an “unfriendly attitude.” Malaysia's Defense Minister called similar remarks by the North's Ambassador “rude.” Malaysian police say they have been “very fair” in their investigation.
While this event took place in Malaysia and involves a North Korean of the Kim leadership lineage, Kim Jong Nam lived in China following his 2001 failed attempt to enter Japan to visit Disneyland.
No definitive links have been made between the death of Kim and North Korea, but the United States and South Korean officials believe that Pyongyang was behind the attack.
If proven true, what could the effect be on China-North Korean relations, since China is North Korea's largest trading partner and ally?
Bilateral relations with North Korea have been "difficult at best," so "China doesn't like what North Korea is doing, but it's been unwilling to implement pressure or implement the U.N. sanctions on North Korea." that is Bruce Klingner, Senior Research Fellow on Northeast Asia at the Heritage Foundation.
And Bonnie Glaser, Senior Advisor for Asia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies says, "I think you can add this alleged assassination of Kim Jong Nam to a long list of issues that are causing friction in the China-North Korean relationship."
Like the missile and nuclear tests, Glaser says, there is another factor that could be contributing to the friction between Pyongyang and Beijing. "Beijing is looking for issues on which it can cooperate with the Trump Administration," said Glaser.
The key thing to watch, says Rodger Baker, Stratfor Vice President of Strategic Analysis, is whether or not China feels North Korea's actions are starting to undermine Beijing's interests.
"The Chinese have long accepted many of the things North Korea does, primarily because, in the end, they don't ultimately create a sense of risk for China itself. This has even gone to their nuclear program," noted Baker.
Klingner adds,"Perhaps the assassination of Kim Jong Nam goes beyond their anger at North Korea for the various missile and nuclear tests. We've seen China announce it would halt its coal imports from North Korea, but before they did that they had expedited a lot of shipments. Perhaps they had already reached the 2017 quota."
With the Kim Jong Nam assassination conducted openly, Baker says that if North Korea once again finds itself listed on terrorism watch lists, China may be asked to treat Pyongyang accordingly.