Johannesburg
17 July 2008
Morgan Tsvangirai, the founding president of Zimbabwe's opposition Movement for Democratic Change, has put on hold a preliminary agreement that would pave the way for formal talks with President Robert Mugabe's ZANU-PF. VOA's Delia Robertson reports from our southern Africa bureau in Johannesburg.
Analysts say that any formal agreements will have to win the support of the security establishment in Zimbabwe, which is widely believed to be the power behind Mr. Mugabe.
Independent analyst Chris Maroleng tells VOA the mediator will have to find a way to reassure this group that they will not be held accountable for their actions by a future transitional government.
"I believe it is the insecurity that is felt by these elements in the state security apparatus that has created a behavior in them which makes them active spoilers when faced with the prospects of change. Because they might feel that the cost involved in a transition would result in a loss of status, a loss of access, and indeed possible prosecution if a transition is to occur," said Maroleng.
It is possible that if, following his meeting with Mr. Mbeki, the African Union's Jean Ping is able to reassure Morgan Tsvangirai that Mr. Mbeki can manage the mediaiton on his own, the signing of the preliminary agreement could take place within days. If so, formal talks may get under way as early as next week.