"To serve the housing needs of our students, Buckingham College should build a number of new dormitories. Buckingham's enrollment is growing and, based on current trends, will double over the next 50 years, thus making existing dormitory space inadequate

In this memo the director of student housing at Buckingham College states that new college dormitories are needed to accommodate future students. And also concludes that new dormitories will attract prospective students to enroll at Buckingham collage. But this argument is rife with holes and assumptions, each of which can be refuted.

First, the director states that student enrollment at Buckingham will double in next 50 years. But doesn't provided sufficient evidence to support this statement. What trends and statistics were used to state this future prediction? Maybe it is only this time that Buckingham has received such a huge enrollment and the same may not repeat in future. Even if Buckingham is a revered college, if its academic credentials drop, it may not be a popular choice of students in future. After all what holds true today might not be true 50 years later.

Another statement that director cites, is that average apartment rents in town are increasing and hence students would prefer in-campus dormitories. The director makes this assumption without citing any evidence or conducting any research. It is highly likely that after few years apartment rents plummet, if this happens the new dormitories if built would be completely useless, seriously weakening the director’s argument.

Even if apartment rents keep increasing, stating that new dormitories will attract prospective students is an illogical assumption. Any prolific student would prefer a college with good academic facilities rather than new dormitories. How the director links these two independent phenomenon is beyond comprehension. If Buckingham doesn't improve or atleast maintain its academic rankings, its enrollment will only fall but not rise.

Ultimately, the director’s argument relies on unstated assumptions, and the argument cannot be taken for granted unless these assumptions are validated with proper evidence. To strengthen his or her argument the director of student housing should conduct statistical analysis, to determine future enrollment trends. Also rental market has to be studied, since prices in such markets continuously vary and then plan accordingly. If these evidences are provided then the director can present a more cogent argument.