The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice to a client. "Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last year that region experien

The letter argues that the northeastern United States, where winters are freezing cold, is going to increase the usage of oil which have been the habitants' major fuel for heating. The author presents some reasons, like many new homes built in the region that might cause the increasing demand for oil, and the current climate has been below normal temperature, to support his assertion that the elevation of oil consumption is indisputable. It seems quite convincing at the first glance, but I find it specious on several grounds after deliberation.

To begin with, the climate forecasters predict that the freezing cold weather pattern will continue for years on the basis of the current weather that temperature under the normal level persists for 90 days. It fails to convince me that this wired weather pattern will be continue for several years because the author didn't present enough vigorous evidences to show the relationship between this certain odd weather and the weather of the future. Maybe this drastic decrease of temperature was due to the frequently cold front occurred this year.

Moreover, the author predicts the demand for heating oil will rise because of the trend that many new houses built in the region in recent. It seems reasonable at the first glance. However, with the advent of technology, more and more houses are equipped with the heating facilities instead of traditionally burning heating oil which might waste lots of time. With the consideration of this possible alteration of the newly built houses, the investment in Consolidated Industries, local major business operation which serves the most heating oil of the region, should be halt and carefully take more possible factors into account.

Therefore, without ruling out these possible answers to the recent problems faced, the assertion of the letter will not be convincing. Though the increasing demand for heating oil might occur, the sponsors should take more factors into consideration and make the careful final decision.