The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
The writer recommend that people should do investment in Consolidated Industries, because this company sales home heating oil. However, the argument is unpersuasive because it relies on several questionable assumptions.
First, the author asserts that consumption of home heating oil will increase because northeastern United States traditionally used oil for heating their home. However, this assertion assumes that people in northeastern U.S might be use home heating oil for warming their house as traditionally did. As development of technology, boiler for heating home could use electricity as source of energy. It might be better efficiency. Admittedly, although they use heating oil for warming their house, with the higher efficiency of state of the art boiler might reduce heating oil per heat. As result, in case of low temperature consumption of heating oil can stay stable.
Second, it is assumed that climate forecast prediction is accurate. However, climate is might different year to year, and climate of last year is exceptional case. For example, irregular wind blows from north arctic area to northeastern United States in last year. Even if the last year climate is not anomaly, it is difficult to predict climate, and it is wrong in many case. Only last year data is not enough for accurate prediction, so further observation needed to determine if forecast prediction is correct or not for prudent investment.
Third, the writer assumes that many new homes recently built in this region will cause increased consumption of heating oil. However, not it depends on many factors like how many number of house built, how closely these houses are. For example, if great number of house was built in close distance, there must be warming effect which reduce temperature. Thus, impact of lower climate will be reduced by this warming effect not causing expand consumption of home heating oil.
Finally, the writer assumes that Consolidated Industries is the best company for investment because their major product is heating oil for home. However, there’s no information if Consolidated Industries is the best company. There must be more reason to recommend Consolidated Industries for investment like lowest price, and low cost of transportation because of accessibility and high quality of oil. Without additional consideration of this company, recommendation is not warranted.
In conclusion, further evidence such as heating oil is the only energy source of warming home, how accurate forecast prediction is, the effect of newly built homes and Consolidated Industries is the most appropriate company is required for supporting assumption or a more persuasive argument.
| Post date | Users | Rates | Link to Content |
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| 2019-11-19 | 想不到一个好名字 | 61 | view |
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Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 1, column 12, Rule ID: MASS_AGREEMENT[2]
Message: Possible agreement error - use third-person verb forms for singular and mass nouns: 'recommends'.
Suggestion: recommends
The writer recommend that people should do investment in Con...
^^^^^^^^^
Line 2, column 222, Rule ID: SENTENCE_WHITESPACE
Message: Add a space between sentences
Suggestion: S
...n assumes that people in northeastern U.S might be use home heating oil for warmi...
^
Line 2, column 525, Rule ID: STATE_OF_THE_ART[1]
Message: Did you mean 'state-of-the-art'?
Suggestion: state-of-the-art
...ir house, with the higher efficiency of state of the art boiler might reduce heating oil per hea...
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Line 3, column 367, Rule ID: MANY_NN[1]
Message: Possible agreement error. The noun case seems to be countable; consider using: 'many cases'.
Suggestion: many cases
... to predict climate, and it is wrong in many case. Only last year data is not enough for ...
^^^^^^^^^
Line 4, column 175, Rule ID: MANY_NN[1]
Message: Possible agreement error. The noun number seems to be countable; consider using: 'many numbers'.
Suggestion: many numbers
...not it depends on many factors like how many number of house built, how closely these house...
^^^^^^^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
finally, first, however, if, second, so, third, thus, for example, in conclusion, such as
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 25.0 19.6327345309 127% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 12.0 12.9520958084 93% => OK
Conjunction : 7.0 11.1786427146 63% => OK
Relative clauses : 7.0 13.6137724551 51% => More relative clauses wanted.
Pronoun: 23.0 28.8173652695 80% => OK
Preposition: 40.0 55.5748502994 72% => OK
Nominalization: 24.0 16.3942115768 146% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2286.0 2260.96107784 101% => OK
No of words: 419.0 441.139720559 95% => More content wanted.
Chars per words: 5.45584725537 5.12650576532 106% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.52432199235 4.56307096286 99% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.96025471532 2.78398813304 106% => OK
Unique words: 201.0 204.123752495 98% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.479713603819 0.468620217663 102% => OK
syllable_count: 720.9 705.55239521 102% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.7 1.59920159681 106% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 4.0 4.96107784431 81% => OK
Article: 6.0 8.76447105788 68% => OK
Subordination: 6.0 2.70958083832 221% => Less adverbial clause wanted.
Conjunction: 3.0 1.67365269461 179% => OK
Preposition: 4.0 4.22255489022 95% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 22.0 19.7664670659 111% => OK
Sentence length: 19.0 22.8473053892 83% => The Avg. Sentence Length is relatively short.
Sentence length SD: 50.6365268481 57.8364921388 88% => OK
Chars per sentence: 103.909090909 119.503703932 87% => OK
Words per sentence: 19.0454545455 23.324526521 82% => OK
Discourse Markers: 4.04545454545 5.70786347227 71% => OK
Paragraphs: 6.0 5.15768463074 116% => OK
Language errors: 5.0 5.25449101796 95% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 15.0 8.20758483034 183% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 3.0 6.88822355289 44% => More negative sentences wanted.
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 4.0 4.67664670659 86% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.281807146678 0.218282227539 129% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0909059648122 0.0743258471296 122% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0861230973681 0.0701772020484 123% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.139615072612 0.128457276422 109% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0758908236441 0.0628817314937 121% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 13.8 14.3799401198 96% => OK
flesch_reading_ease: 43.73 48.3550499002 90% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 11.9 12.197005988 98% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 14.39 12.5979740519 114% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.35 8.32208582834 100% => OK
difficult_words: 100.0 98.500998004 102% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 7.5 12.3882235529 61% => OK
gunning_fog: 9.6 11.1389221557 86% => OK
text_standard: 14.0 11.9071856287 118% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 66.67 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 4.0 Out of 6
---------------------
Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.