The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice to a client.
"Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last year that region experienced 90 days with below-average temperatures, and climate forecasters at Waymarsh University predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes have been built in this region during the past year. Because these developments will certainly result in an increased demand for heating oil, we recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
In the letter above, the author predicts that there will be an increase in oil demand and thus investment in Consolidated Industries would meet this demand, based on the climate forecasts in the northwest United States and recent population growth there. While the advice to invest Consolidated Industries to address the problem of lacking oil seems plausible, there are unsubstantiated assumptions in the reasoning process that would, to some extent, jeopardize the credibility of the advice per se.
To begin with, the author assumes that the ninety-day below-normal temperature of last heating seasons is abnormal without offering more temperature data of that area. If it is anything but abnormal that this area keeps having a below-normal temperature no less than ninety days, then there is no need to increase the oil for heating because due to the duration. Moreover, the author also founds the advice on a fiver-year timespan forecast. However, it is too cursory and unscrupulous to utilize such data, for the climate forecasts of a distant future is untenable. Therefor, that assuming the present forecasts could be valid for next five years actually undermine the advice.
Simultaneously, the author of the letter supposes that the population growth accompanied by more houses would augment the need for heating oil. However, if the newly built houses have utilizes state-of-art warming method that needs less oil than old builds, then the advice will be superfluous. As a matter of fact, most of the new building perform excellent in keeping the interior heat. In addition, even though these buildings are not designed for heat insulation, the author is too perfunctory to believe these building will continue the use of oil. If the new buildings switch to other energy, then the demand of the oil will not increase.
Last but not least, the advice for client to invest Consolidated Industries is untenable because the assumption that an increase demand will benefit the company is not well supported. Even though there will be increasing demand for oil, the company may not be the best choice for local residents. For instance, if the product quality of the company can't satisfy the local people, they would purchase oil form other companies. In this scenario, the clients will be reluctant to invest the company. Therefore, unless the author could provide information why the local residents would choose Consolidated Industries, then the assumption would not champion the advice effectively, resulting into clients inclination for this investment.
In summary, the letter need seek more information to attest those assumptions. The letter has to inform the clients of the credibility of those information to uphold the advice. The necessity of oil as heating material should be considered. Moreover, the author should include proof that the oil will be chose by the new population as their nwe house heating material. And, the popularity of the company, Consolidated Industries, should be taken into account, which is essential for clients to decide about the investment.
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Comments
Essay evaluation report
Sentence: Moreover, the author should include proof that the oil will be chose by the new population as their nwe house heating material.
Error: nwe Suggestion: new
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argument 1 -- not exactly. better arguments:
maybe there are more days for the above-average temperatures.
argument 2 -- OK
argument 3 -- OK
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Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 4.0 out of 6
Category: Good Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 1 2
No. of Sentences: 22 15
No. of Words: 492 350
No. of Characters: 2538 1500
No. of Different Words: 225 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.71 4.7
Average Word Length: 5.159 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.753 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 201 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 142 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 98 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 67 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 22.364 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 8.177 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.727 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.31 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.524 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.076 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 8, column 350, Rule ID: CANT[1]
Message: Did you mean 'can't' or 'cannot'?
Suggestion: can't; cannot
..., if the product quality of the company cant satisfy the local people, they would pu...
^^^^
Line 10, column 139, Rule ID: THIS_NNS[2]
Message: Did you mean 'this information' or 'those informations'?
Suggestion: this information; those informations
...nform the clients of the credibility of those information to uphold the advice. The necessity of ...
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
actually, also, but, however, if, may, moreover, so, then, therefore, thus, well, while, as to, for instance, in addition, in summary, as a matter of fact, to begin with
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 20.0 19.6327345309 102% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 23.0 12.9520958084 178% => OK
Conjunction : 5.0 11.1786427146 45% => More conjunction wanted.
Relative clauses : 11.0 13.6137724551 81% => OK
Pronoun: 22.0 28.8173652695 76% => OK
Preposition: 52.0 55.5748502994 94% => OK
Nominalization: 17.0 16.3942115768 104% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2608.0 2260.96107784 115% => OK
No of words: 492.0 441.139720559 112% => OK
Chars per words: 5.30081300813 5.12650576532 103% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.70967865282 4.56307096286 103% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.8462107196 2.78398813304 102% => OK
Unique words: 235.0 204.123752495 115% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.477642276423 0.468620217663 102% => OK
syllable_count: 806.4 705.55239521 114% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 3.0 4.96107784431 60% => OK
Article: 13.0 8.76447105788 148% => OK
Subordination: 9.0 2.70958083832 332% => Less adverbial clause wanted.
Conjunction: 0.0 1.67365269461 0% => OK
Preposition: 6.0 4.22255489022 142% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 22.0 19.7664670659 111% => OK
Sentence length: 22.0 22.8473053892 96% => OK
Sentence length SD: 55.0552689997 57.8364921388 95% => OK
Chars per sentence: 118.545454545 119.503703932 99% => OK
Words per sentence: 22.3636363636 23.324526521 96% => OK
Discourse Markers: 7.68181818182 5.70786347227 135% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 2.0 5.25449101796 38% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 6.0 8.20758483034 73% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 8.0 6.88822355289 116% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 8.0 4.67664670659 171% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.167748909554 0.218282227539 77% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.05434337862 0.0743258471296 73% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0241662432851 0.0701772020484 34% => Sentences are similar to each other.
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.0981317072043 0.128457276422 76% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0187163503079 0.0628817314937 30% => Paragraphs are similar to each other. Some content may get duplicated or it is not exactly right on the topic.
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 14.7 14.3799401198 102% => OK
flesch_reading_ease: 49.15 48.3550499002 102% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 11.9 12.197005988 98% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 13.76 12.5979740519 109% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.61 8.32208582834 103% => OK
difficult_words: 121.0 98.500998004 123% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 20.0 12.3882235529 161% => OK
gunning_fog: 10.8 11.1389221557 97% => OK
text_standard: 9.0 11.9071856287 76% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 66.67 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 4.0 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.