The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice to a client.
"Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last year that region experienced 90 days with below-average temperatures, and climate forecasters at Waymarsh University predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes have been built in this region during the past year. Because these developments will certainly result in an increased demand for heating oil, we recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
The author proposes that, owing to increasing demand for heating oil, we should invest in consolidated industries whose major business operation is the retail sale of home heating oil. To buttress his/her argument, the author cites the following evidence: first, 90 days with below-average temperature happened last year and would continue for the several more years; second, there is increasingly number of newly built home in this region during the past year; third, retail sale of home heating oil is the major business operation in consolidated industries. Tough the issue have merit, because of lack of relevant evidences and unaddressed assumptions, the conclusion is unsubstantiated and flawed.
To begin with, the author unfairly claims that many days of below-average temperature will result in increasing usage of heat oil. The author fails to provide detailed information regarding with these 90 below-average temperature days. it is likely that, although there are 90 days that are relatively cold, the remaining days in winter are mostly much higher than average. The total usage of oil, thus, is less than previous years. In addition, if most of these 90 days are in summer, people might be more pleasing due to lower temperature, and there is no reason to predict that oil will be used more extensively in the winter.
Furthermore, the newly constructed homes in this area during the past years do not necessarily manifest the enhanced demand for heating oil. it is likely that these new homes utilize innovative technology for heating during winters, such as electricity or solar energy. The demand for heating oil is stable in this case. Add, the old households may search for more efficient ways of obtaining heat, and thus discontinue to use oil as fuel for heating. All in all, the assumption that the more homes in this region, the more usage of heating oil is fallacious.
last but not least, the author assumes that people can make profit by investing in consolidated industries due to increase demand in heating oil. While such an assumption may seem reliable at first glance, no definite evidence has been offered to back it. we cannot make any conclusion about the profit since we are not given the reputation and business strategy of the consolidated industries. if the consolidated industries earn profit mainly from other business operations during the past few years, but unfortunately, these parts are subjected to loss starting from this year, then we perhaps even face losing. The consolidated industries might be competitively disadvantage in the market by setting the oil price much higher than competitor. we again are unlikely to make profit by investing in this company even if the demand of oil enhances.
To sum up, as it stands, the evidences are relied on several flawed assumptions that undermine its validity. To strengthen the author’s argument, the author is recommended to offer the evidences as follows: first, more detailed record of daily temperature and oil use during the last year and credibility of the prediction; second, both new and old homes insist to warm their houses by heating oil and would continue do so for several more years; third, consolidated industries’ majority profit comes from oil sale and remaining parts of business operation are remunerative.
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Comments
Essay evaluation report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 5.0 out of 6
Category: Very Good Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 16 15
No. of Words: 539 350
No. of Characters: 2716 1500
No. of Different Words: 237 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.818 4.7
Average Word Length: 5.039 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.789 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 189 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 131 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 106 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 72 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 33.688 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 19.649 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.75 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.374 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.619 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.151 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 3, column 237, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: It
...hese 90 below-average temperature days. it is likely that, although there are 90 d...
^^
Line 5, column 142, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: It
...st the enhanced demand for heating oil. it is likely that these new homes utilize ...
^^
Line 7, column 1, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: Last
... usage of heating oil is fallacious. last but not least, the author assumes that ...
^^^^
Line 7, column 396, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: If
...trategy of the consolidated industries. if the consolidated industries earn profit...
^^
Line 7, column 748, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: We
... oil price much higher than competitor. we again are unlikely to make profit by in...
^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
but, first, furthermore, if, may, regarding, second, so, then, third, thus, while, in addition, such as, to begin with, to sum up
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 24.0 19.6327345309 122% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 11.0 12.9520958084 85% => OK
Conjunction : 14.0 11.1786427146 125% => OK
Relative clauses : 10.0 13.6137724551 73% => More relative clauses wanted.
Pronoun: 32.0 28.8173652695 111% => OK
Preposition: 74.0 55.5748502994 133% => OK
Nominalization: 13.0 16.3942115768 79% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2808.0 2260.96107784 124% => OK
No of words: 538.0 441.139720559 122% => OK
Chars per words: 5.21933085502 5.12650576532 102% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.81610080973 4.56307096286 106% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.8940872613 2.78398813304 104% => OK
Unique words: 256.0 204.123752495 125% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.475836431227 0.468620217663 102% => OK
syllable_count: 896.4 705.55239521 127% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.7 1.59920159681 106% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 6.0 4.96107784431 121% => OK
Article: 16.0 8.76447105788 183% => OK
Subordination: 6.0 2.70958083832 221% => Less adverbial clause wanted.
Conjunction: 3.0 1.67365269461 179% => OK
Preposition: 7.0 4.22255489022 166% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 21.0 19.7664670659 106% => OK
Sentence length: 25.0 22.8473053892 109% => OK
Sentence length SD: 96.0151159679 57.8364921388 166% => OK
Chars per sentence: 133.714285714 119.503703932 112% => OK
Words per sentence: 25.619047619 23.324526521 110% => OK
Discourse Markers: 6.14285714286 5.70786347227 108% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 5.0 5.25449101796 95% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 8.0 8.20758483034 97% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 8.0 6.88822355289 116% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 5.0 4.67664670659 107% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.166975069519 0.218282227539 76% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0530115792834 0.0743258471296 71% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0396652124902 0.0701772020484 57% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.100958699377 0.128457276422 79% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0270977742543 0.0628817314937 43% => Paragraphs are similar to each other. Some content may get duplicated or it is not exactly right on the topic.
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 16.0 14.3799401198 111% => OK
flesch_reading_ease: 37.64 48.3550499002 78% => OK
smog_index: 11.2 7.1628742515 156% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 14.2 12.197005988 116% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 13.29 12.5979740519 105% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.19 8.32208582834 98% => OK
difficult_words: 113.0 98.500998004 115% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 20.0 12.3882235529 161% => OK
gunning_fog: 12.0 11.1389221557 108% => OK
text_standard: 12.0 11.9071856287 101% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 66.67 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 4.0 Out of 6
---------------------
Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.