The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice to a client.
"Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last year that region experienced twenty days with below-average temperatures, and local weather forecasters throughout the region predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes have been built in this region during the past year. Based on these developments, we predict a large increase in the demand for heating oil. Therefore, we recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
In the letter, a business organization focused the attention of her clients on a non-peddling but large scale retails of house warming fuel. This recommendation was based on certain arguments - the fact that there have been precedence of historical winter cold and antiquated use of house heating oil; the harbinger of consistent low temperature below the existing nadir; surge in the number of modern houses built - and the conjecture of prospective demand for heating fuel. While it may be a verisimilitude that such fuel are traditionally useful in keeping the house warm, the arguments upon which the recommendation of the firm are based are not well reasoned. However, three questions must be answered in order to evaluate the recommendation.
To start with, how is the experience of score days significant for the prediction of probable events of unqualified years? Or how will such observation within an annual range become surfeit to establish a pattern of event - as in the case of weather? A period of twenty days of winter cold observed within a single season is negligibly insignificant to aver that such seemingly canard information will be sufficient for the local forcasters to formulate their pattern of weather predictions. For instance, there are possibilities that the winter cold is not inherrent, and that such sudden occurrence was just by chance. If the firm fails to logically formulate arguements that answer the above questions, the recommendation of the business organization does not hold water.
Even if the author answers the above questions, should his tacit allusion of how the forcasters get data to presage be left unanswered? How about the arcanum of the relationship between newly built houses and the need to prepare for ramifications of the forcast? However much the prediction of the forcasters, the author failed to state the emperical results upon which the local forcast had been based. Further, the author stated that there will be increase in the demand for oil as a consequence of the forcast but fallshort in parelleling how it would be affected by the increasing residential infrasctures. Nonetheless, if the author had accounted for the parameters upon which the forcast was based or corresponded the significance of increased houses to his recommendation, perhaps his recommendation would have less feeble.
Moreover, the author failed to rule out the uncertainties associated with the future and such staid failure leave the reader and or the client with another question to cerebrate on - if it is a given that the forcast is true, what if the demand for heating oil does not increase? For instance, the author had corroborated the bucolic use of the heating oil as major, Not only did the firm failed to adumbrate minor other substances that could also keep the indigenous Northeastern American natives or sojournals warm, but also ruled out the possibilities of futuristic preeminence of such minor substance over the home heating fuel. It may also hold true that regardless of the traditional use of the oil during the period of twenty days winter cold accounted for, there have been absolute reliance on other more effective warmers that the firm is not aware of and that is if we want to overlook the inimical effect that might have been incurred by many which perhaps made it fall out of favour. Thus, if these riddles are not solved, then the firm's advice will remain dubious and rest more on unwarranted assumptions and that it is based.
In conclusion, as it stands now, the recommendation is flawed. It is only when the author deploy logical formulations - such as how the weather prediction pattern is formulated, the importance of residential infrastructure and more evidence to elucidate why home warming fuel will not be superseded in the future - that his recommendation to reinforce oil investiture will become reasonable.
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Comments
Essay evaluation report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 3.0 out of 6
Category: Satisfactory Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 20 15
No. of Words: 633 350
No. of Characters: 3197 1500
No. of Different Words: 289 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 5.016 4.7
Average Word Length: 5.051 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.981 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 220 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 163 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 120 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 97 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 31.65 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 15.107 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.8 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.3 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.534 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.088 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 13, column 1045, Rule ID: POSSESIVE_APOSTROPHE[1]
Message: Possible typo: apostrophe is missing. Did you mean 'firms'' or 'firm's'?
Suggestion: firms'; firm's
... these riddles are not solved, then the firms advice will remain dubious and rest mor...
^^^^^
Line 17, column 393, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
...oil investiture will become reasonable.
^^^^^^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, but, however, if, look, may, moreover, nonetheless, so, then, thus, well, while, for instance, in conclusion, such as, to start with
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 30.0 19.6327345309 153% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 15.0 12.9520958084 116% => OK
Conjunction : 17.0 11.1786427146 152% => OK
Relative clauses : 20.0 13.6137724551 147% => OK
Pronoun: 32.0 28.8173652695 111% => OK
Preposition: 82.0 55.5748502994 148% => OK
Nominalization: 29.0 16.3942115768 177% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 3277.0 2260.96107784 145% => OK
No of words: 633.0 441.139720559 143% => Less content wanted.
Chars per words: 5.17693522907 5.12650576532 101% => OK
Fourth root words length: 5.01592376844 4.56307096286 110% => OK
Word Length SD: 3.04935109137 2.78398813304 110% => OK
Unique words: 295.0 204.123752495 145% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.466034755134 0.468620217663 99% => OK
syllable_count: 1034.1 705.55239521 147% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 3.0 4.96107784431 60% => OK
Article: 11.0 8.76447105788 126% => OK
Subordination: 6.0 2.70958083832 221% => Less adverbial clause wanted.
Conjunction: 3.0 1.67365269461 179% => OK
Preposition: 3.0 4.22255489022 71% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 20.0 19.7664670659 101% => OK
Sentence length: 31.0 22.8473053892 136% => The Avg. Sentence Length is relatively long.
Sentence length SD: 90.303986623 57.8364921388 156% => OK
Chars per sentence: 163.85 119.503703932 137% => OK
Words per sentence: 31.65 23.324526521 136% => OK
Discourse Markers: 6.9 5.70786347227 121% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 2.0 5.25449101796 38% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 7.0 8.20758483034 85% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 8.0 6.88822355289 116% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 5.0 4.67664670659 107% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.169624734811 0.218282227539 78% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0493649412125 0.0743258471296 66% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0401254520037 0.0701772020484 57% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.0927763642257 0.128457276422 72% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0542254907043 0.0628817314937 86% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 18.8 14.3799401198 131% => OK
flesch_reading_ease: 40.01 48.3550499002 83% => OK
smog_index: 11.2 7.1628742515 156% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 15.4 12.197005988 126% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 13.36 12.5979740519 106% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 9.14 8.32208582834 110% => OK
difficult_words: 159.0 98.500998004 161% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 19.5 12.3882235529 157% => OK
gunning_fog: 14.4 11.1389221557 129% => OK
text_standard: 20.0 11.9071856287 168% => OK
What are above readability scores?
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Write the essay in 30 minutes.
Rates: 66.67 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 4.0 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.