The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client."Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that

The author of the letter has mentioned that most of the homes in northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. The author has also mentioned that according to climate forecaster's prediction, weather will be less and people will continue to use oil, he also states that, many new homes are being built in response to recent population growth. So, the author advises to invest money in Consolidated Industries to provide oil to people in winters. Though the statement might appear convincing at first, but a close scrutiny of the argument proves that it is based on several assumptions for which the author has not provided enough evidences.

Firstly, the author states that people are using oil as their major fuel for heating and assumes that they will continue to do so in the near future. However, he has not provided any information about other fuels available and are there any chances that people might use other fuels in coming years? It may be possible that some other fuels become available in market at comparatively low prices and people will prefer using that over oil. Also, the author has completely ignored the fact that any new technological advancements will be made to heat houses in winter. So, without taking these factors into consideration, it is not advisable to consider that people will continue to use oil in future as well.

Secondly, the author has mentioned that the population in northeastern United States is increasing recently. Author should have noted the reason for this increase in population as it might be helpful in detecting whether this increase will continue in the coming years as well. Just because many new homes are built in the region does not mean that population will go on increasing. To strengthen his point, author should have provided proper statistics regarding predictions about the population in that region in coming years.

Finally, the author suggests to make investment in Consolidated Industries whose major business operation is the retail sale of home heating oil. The author has not mentioned anything regarding the amount required for investment. Also, the author has assumed that people will prefer to use oil from Consolidated Industries. If the price of oil provided by these industries is more, then people will obviously not use this oil. Author should have taken a survey to know the percentage of people who are ready to use oil provided by Consolidated Industries, accordingly, decision can be taken. Also, the author should have mentioned more details about the initial investment cost and the return of investment in these industries.

Conclusively, we can say that, in its current form, the argument is repleted with assumptions and it fails to convince its readers. Author should have strengthen his points by providing more information about the predictions of population in coming years, availability of other fuels or technologies for heating homes and also about the profits and investment required in Consolidated Industries. Without taking these factors into consideration, it is not sagacious to take further actions of investment.