The following appeared in a memorandum from the manager of WWAC radio station."To reverse a decline in listener numbers, our owners have decided that WWAC must change from its current rock-music format. The decline has occurred despite population growth i

In this argument, the author comes to the conclusion that WWAC radio station should change their initial format which is no long popular to a news and talk format so as to increase the listener numbers. Although it might seem reasonable at first glance, it is in fact ill-convinced in several aspects. The reasons are stated as follow.

To begin with, the author assumes that to ameliorate the decline in listener numbers which resulted mainly from people just retired, the WWAC radio station should be favored by their taste. Although it is entirely possible, the author offers no adequate evidence to substantiate this crucial assumption. It is very likely that the people who moving to this area after retirement do not listen the radio. If WWAC radio station change their format to what they think would attract the people who just retired, they will finally failed because they don't even listen the radio. The author's reasoning is definitely flawed unless the author can provide more survey or information about whether these people would like to listen to the radio or whether they would please to try.

In addition, the author asserts that the sales of recorded music declined due to the limited interest in music. Nevertheless, there is no guarantee that it is necessary the case, and the author does not supply any evidence to confirm this this assumption. It is quite possible that they use the ipod or mp3 to listen to music. The declined sales of recorded music does not mean people in this area do not love music, actually they just change their way to enjoy music. Without accounting for and ruling out these and other possible alternative explanations, the author cannot bolster the recommendation.

Finally, even if the evidences turn out to support the assumptions above, the author just simply claims that if WWAC radio station's format changes to a news and talk, this form would be gradually popular in their area. Without any conclusive scientific evidence is provided to affirm this assumption. It is reasonable to doubt that what the author assumes will not happen in reality.
It is possible that the new technology product like ipad, youtube, mp3 replaced the radio which is the traditional way that people listened to music. So, to reach the cited conclusion, the author must explain either why none of other alternatives is available or why none of them is able to sustain.

To sum up, the author's argument mentioned above is not based on valid evidence or sound reasoning, neither of which is dispensable for a consummate argument. In order to draw a better conclusion, the author should reason more convincingly and take every consideration into account.