The following appeared in a memorandum from the manager of WWAC radio station."To reverse a decline in listener numbers, our owners have decided that WWAC must change from its current rock-music format. The decline has occurred despite population growth i

In this argument, the arguer advocates that WWAC must change from its current rock-music format to reverse a decline in listener numbers. Although this argument might seem reasonable at first glance, it is in fact ill-conceived. The reasons are stated as follows.

In the first place, the arguer argues that WWAC should make new listeners of people after their retirement in order to reverse the current decline. Although this is entirely possible strategy, the arguer's offers no evidence to substantiate the assumption. It is very likely that these people may like WWAC current rock-music format. An appropriate example is not very far to seek. Recently, lots of people create the rock-bands after their retirement, in order to realize their vigorous young dream. These people would possibly love the current WWAC played song. The arguer's reasoning is definitely flawed unless the arguer can convince me that these and other possible scenarios are unlikely.

In the second place, the arguer argues that WWAC should switch to a news and talk format to improve the current decline in local sales of recorded music. Nevertheless, there is no guarantee that it is necessary the case, and the arguer does not supply evidence to confirm this assumption. It is quite possible that this strategy may keep those original listeners away instead of attracting new ones. To illustrate this point clearly, let us take a look at the following representative example. Microsoft tried to attract some mobile users with new interface integrated their new OS, Windows 8. However, this strategy cause a severe decline which not only attract no new users, but make their original users thrill about their new products. Without accounting for and ruling out these alternative explanation, the arguer's cannot bolster the recommendation.

The last but not least important, even if the evidence turns out to support the foregoing assumption, the arguer simply assumes that WWAC should switch change to new format in order to adapt the taste of new listeners and neither conclusive scientific evidence nor ancedotal evidence support this assumption. It is reasonable to doubt that this assumption will not happen in reality. It is just as possible that the producers in WWAC may have no clue that those new listeners loves, even the new listerners themselves. For example, AB testing is a strategy that Google like to use. In many experiment with AB testing, the managers and programmers in Google surprisingly find that the users like the original designs other than the ones that those managers and programmers expected. Furthermore, they found that even the users themselves does not realize they get used to old designs instead of trying new ones. To cited the conclusion, the arguer must explain either why none these and other alternatives is available or why none of these alternatives is able to sustain.

To sum up, the arguer's argument is not based on valid evidence and sound reasoning. Neither of which is dispensable for conclusion. In order to draw a conclusion. The arguer should reason more carefully, cite more evidence that is persuasive, and take every possible consideration into account.