The following appeared as a recommendation by a committee planning a ten-year budget for the city of Calatrava."The birthrate in our city is declining: in fact, last year's birthrate was only one-half that of five years ago. Thus the number of students en

The recommendation given by the committee planning a ten-year budget for the city of Calatrava states that the birth rate of the city is declining and due to this the number of students enrolled in public schools will decrease so the funds budgeted for schools can be safely reduced. The committee also recommends that funding for athletic playing fields and other recreational facilities can be reduced and eventually the funds for city facilities and programs used bye adults can be increased as the adult population will be more as compared to children. Though the recommendation might appear convincing at first, but on a careful analysis of the suggestion made, it can be seen that the it is filled with assumptions for which there are no evidences.

Firstly, the committee has stated that last year's birthrate was only half that of five years ago. Based on this, the committee is too quick to assume that the birthrate for the coming years will also decline. As, the committee is recommending budget for next ten years, depending on just the birthrate of last year is not advisable. Also, it is important to check the credibility of the statistics about birthrate because, the birthrate has decreased dramatically. To strengthen their point, the committee should have provided more information regarding the source from where they got these statistics about birthrate.

Secondly, the committee has stated that the number of students enrolling in public school will decrease. As stated by the committee, birthrate of just last year has decreased. The children born last year will not immediately enroll for schools. They will be enrolling after 2-3 years. There is no information provided regarding the birthrate of years before last year. So, without taking that into consideration, it is illogical to reduce the funds of public schools, athletic playing fields and other recreational activities. Because, if the birthrate was high before, then the number of students enrolling to public schools in this year will be more and reduction of funds might cause a problem here. Also, the people participating in athletics are generally in in the age group of 15-25 years. Without considering the percentage of people constituting this age group, funds should not be reduced.

Finally, the committee recommends that the funds for city facilities and programs used by adult should be increased. However, they have not provided enough information about the number of adults interested in these city facilities and adult programs. If only a small percentage of population is interested then it is not sagacious to increase the funds for these programs, instead, it should focus on other facilities used by majority of the population.

Conclusively, it can be said that in the present form, the recommendation is flawed and fails to convince the readers. There are many assumptions for which no enough evidences are provided. To strengthen their point, the committee should check the credibility of the survey, and should have provided data about the distribution of the population in various age groups. Without these statistics, it is not advisable to reduce the funds of the public schools and athlete facilities or to increase the funds of adult programs.