The following was written as a part of an application for a small-business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe."Jazz music is extremely popular in the city of Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's annual jazz festival last summer,

The author of the application for a small-business loan asserts that opening a new jazz music club in Monroe will be enormously profitable. This statement is buttressed by several evidences which are connected with the conclusion by assumptions. These beliefs will be scrutinized below in order to gauge the soundness of the conclusion.

The first evidence which is given to us is that more than 100,000 visited jazz festival last year. We know that the performance has a regular base and it is organized annually. However, does the success of the festival mean that jazz is highly popular in the area? Perhaps, majority of spectators of the event live in different states and parts of country. Many famous and well-known festivals are visited by public who intentionally travel to the event.

Additionally to it, we know that the highest-rated radio program in the city is "Jazz Nightly". Despite the fact that this information sounds overwhelmingly, in reality, the radio has only limited auditory owing to the fact that majority of western countries have access to the internet which gives unlimited access to desirable content. Therefore, highly probably "Jazz Nightly" has the most rated and at the same an insignificant number of audience. Consequently, the popularity of jazz in Monroe is doubtful.

Furthermore, the nearest jazz club is situated in over an hour away. From writer's point of view, this situation means that opening a new jazz club in the city will be tremendously profitable; however, how many local residents visit this club? Why no club is opened in the territory? Probably, the demand for jazz performances is not big enough to motivate someone to start up a business which will be connected with the jazz. Thus, the fact that no clubs is built in the area may indeed undermine author's argumentation.

Besides, we were told that a nationwide survey manifests that an average jazz fan spends about $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. The author of the application surmises that some of these money may be spent on visiting his club, at the same time, we have no information about the expenditures of an average jazz fan, for instance, the probability exists that one uses money to buy t-shorts and other jazz related clothes, or on visiting such a big famous festival as one which is annually organized in Monroe. The writer's belief that money of jazz zealots will be spent in his club is not supported.

In conclusion, the author of the application maintains that starting up a jazz club in the town will be highly profitable, however, one has failed to buttress the claim properly and aftermaths of the implementation of the policy are unclear.