Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last year that region experienced twenty days with below-average temperatures, and local weather forecasters throughout

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Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last year that region experienced twenty days with below-average temperatures, and local weather forecasters throughout the region predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes have been built in this region during the past year. Because of these developments, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.

The writer of the argument recommends that investment in consolidated industry is a good way to supply enough oil for increasing demands of it in the future winters. To support this recommendation the author points out that this industry has major role for the retail sale of home heating oil. However, this recommendation cannot be accepted as it is in that it rests on a number of assumptions all of which can be challenged in one way or another.

A threshold assumption upon which the recommendation relies is that investment in consolidated industry can provide enough oil for home using in the future years. There is no evidence that such an investment help the lack of oils in the next year and other future years because investments usually make long term profits and in this case we should provide enough oil for homes in the next years after this year so I think the investment cannot provide enough oil even for the latter year because the investment in this industry use a lot of money and supplying oil more than normal use is impossible for this industry at least in the first year.

Even if it is assumed that investment in consolidated industry can provide more oil for the multiple next years; there is no evidence that this investment is necessary. In fact another problem with the argument is that the author assumed many new homes built in this region during the past year need oil for they heating fuels. There is no evidence that those home use oil for their heating. Maybe they equipped with heaters which are used other kinds of energy such as power with consideration of the last experience of cold weather in the winter. So scenario should provide another explanation for investment in the consolidated industry.

Let’s assume all of new homes built in the last years and previous homes use oil in the future years as heating fuels and that investment provide much more oil for consuming; there is no evidence that this quantity of oil is needed because Local weather forecasters aren’t reliable points in that they do not have suitable and reliable equipment for precise predicting the weather for multiple years. Maybe their prediction was incorrect so that investment is waste of money because the previous industry probably can supply enough oil for the regions.

All of all, to persuade me to accept that investment the author should provide enough documents that universal weather forecasters verify that this weather pattern will continue. Furthermore, they should have accurate information about how many homes, especially about new homes, use oil as a fuel for their heating in the future years.

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2019-09-30 Primace 55 view
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argument 1 -- not OK. it is not for 'can provide enough oil' but investment in oil industry.

argument 2 -- not OK.

argument 3 -- OK
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Let's analyze the structure of the statement and argue accordingly:

condition 1:
Last year that region experienced twenty days with below-average temperatures, and local weather forecasters throughout the region predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years.

condition 2:
Furthermore, many new homes have been built in this region during the past year.

conclusion:
Because of these developments, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.

then here goes the argument:

argument 1:
The weather reports for the last season as well as for the past few years need to be scrutinized to infer that the decline in the temperatures for the last year were not a sudden aberration but a gradual fall. Furthermore, the argument can be strengthened if we can point out the details that corroborate for the predictions made by the climate forecasters about the future winter season.

argument 2:
Make sure the new homes being built are in response to this increase in the population and not some future planning or for the existing population itself. The infrastructure of the new accommodations is also to be scanned. If they already have facilities for inbuilt heating systems then heating oil appears to be completely redundant.

argument 3:
If the heating oil manufactured by Consolidated Industries is not famous amongst the residents of north eastern United States and is not their pick that often, then investing more resources is not suggestible. The present competition in the market is also to be weighed before making any fiscal commitment.

Attribute Value Ideal
Score: 3.0 out of 6
Category: Satisfactory Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 14 15
No. of Words: 447 350
No. of Characters: 2158 1500
No. of Different Words: 183 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.598 4.7
Average Word Length: 4.828 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.611 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 147 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 109 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 72 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 43 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 31.929 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 20.296 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.571 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.429 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.628 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.129 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5