Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last year that region experienced twenty days with below-average temperatures, and local weather forecasters throughout

The writer of the argument recommends that investment in consolidated industry is a good way to supply enough oil for increasing demands of it in the future winters. To support this recommendation the author points out that this industry has major role for the retail sale of home heating oil. However, this recommendation cannot be accepted as it is in that it rests on a number of assumptions all of which can be challenged in one way or another.

A threshold assumption upon which the recommendation relies is that investment in consolidated industry can provide enough oil for home using in the future years. There is no evidence that such an investment help the lack of oils in the next year and other future years because investments usually make long term profits and in this case we should provide enough oil for homes in the next years after this year so I think the investment cannot provide enough oil even for the latter year because the investment in this industry use a lot of money and supplying oil more than normal use is impossible for this industry at least in the first year.

Even if it is assumed that investment in consolidated industry can provide more oil for the multiple next years; there is no evidence that this investment is necessary. In fact another problem with the argument is that the author assumed many new homes built in this region during the past year need oil for they heating fuels. There is no evidence that those home use oil for their heating. Maybe they equipped with heaters which are used other kinds of energy such as power with consideration of the last experience of cold weather in the winter. So scenario should provide another explanation for investment in the consolidated industry.

Let’s assume all of new homes built in the last years and previous homes use oil in the future years as heating fuels and that investment provide much more oil for consuming; there is no evidence that this quantity of oil is needed because Local weather forecasters aren’t reliable points in that they do not have suitable and reliable equipment for precise predicting the weather for multiple years. Maybe their prediction was incorrect so that investment is waste of money because the previous industry probably can supply enough oil for the regions.

All of all, to persuade me to accept that investment the author should provide enough documents that universal weather forecasters verify that this weather pattern will continue. Furthermore, they should have accurate information about how many homes, especially about new homes, use oil as a fuel for their heating in the future years.