Arguemnt: 100 The following was written as a part of an application for a small-business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe."Jazz music is extremely popular in the city of Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's annual jazz festival

This application try to get a loan to invest a jazz music club in Monroe, and the arguer uses a series of explanations to depict how the club can make a profit in Monroe. However, the argument's logic relies on several shaky assumptions which try to bridge the gap between its premises and conclusion.

The arguer confirms that Jazz music has a great many fans in Monroe based on three reasons. One is that over 100,000 people went to the jazz festival last year. However, the arguer fail to provide the information of those audience. Perhaps they were not local residences but fans from other places. Or perhaps since Monroe is a city as the author mentioned, it may contain tens of millions of people living there, then 100,000 would only be a minimum portion among the total population. Another reason is that, there is a popular radio program airs each weeknight. According to the life experience, people usually will attend a club at night, however the program airs at the same time. The arguer is over-confident that people would rather go to the club than listen to the radio with their friends and family. Moreover, a number of famous jazz musicians own houses there will not prove any relations between them and the club. The author may ponder that those artists may proffer some fabulous performances to attract customers for the club or they would pick this place to live for the atmosphere of jazz. However, they may buy house there considering this is a peaceful and beautiful place to spent holidays or just out of economy. Therefore, those three reasons provided by the author are rather weak and vulnerable to explain the necessity of opening a new jazz club in Monroe.

Even though a jazz club maybe essential to open in Monroe, however, the author can not predict it will gain a tremendous profit only based on the premises that no other clubs near there to compete with or that a nationwide study. First, the author mentions that the nearest jazz club will take over an hour to get. If Monroe people crazy about jazz they may open one years ago for their convenience. Thus, even though no competitors around, the new club may get no money since people have no interest in it. Second, a nationwide study is cited to illustrate that fans spend nearly 1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. But the thing is, nationwide statistics may not reflect the conditions of this specific area. In addition, even though this is true in Monroe either, the author rests on the assumption that people spent those money only on the club not equipment of Jazz. Perhaps some fans are Jazz performers themselves and they need to update their instruments regularly. Or perhaps they just buy a high-tech radio for listening the local famous jazz program mentioned by the author. Therefore, none of the premises can stand for the application.

To sum up, if this application which tries to attract investment only rely on those unwarranted assumptions, investors can not be easily persuaded to believe that they will not spend their money to no avail.To strengthen it, the developers should proceed a scientific and rigorous survey around Monroe to evaluate the potential market of a jazz club in this area. Then they can predict whether the club can make profit. Thus, the application would have been more thoroughly and logically acceptable.