The following appeared in a memorandum from the planning department of an electric power company Several recent surveys indicate that home owners are increasingly eager to conserve energy At the same time manufacturers are now marketing many home applianc

The memorandum from the planning department of an electric power company predicts that, the demand for electricity will decline shortly, owing to the increase in production of energy efficient devices and alternative technologies which are becoming prevalent. But, the argument given here, is based on a number of stated and unstated assumptions. The author draws a conclusion, primarily based on few arguments which do not seem to hold considerable value. Hence, the assumptions must be warranted for the conclusion to be effective.

First of all, the argument quotes the results of the recent survey. The exact year during which the survey was conducted, must be mentioned. If the survey has been conducted 4 years ago(which can be deemed 'recent' by the author), then the results will not hold good. Moreover, people are eager to conserve energy. This leads to the unstated assumption that, they will take several steps to conserve energy for sure. While people can be interested to conserve energy, there is no guarantee until they do so.

The manufacturers' marketing of home appliances which are twice as energy efficient compared to those sold ten years ago, does not necessarily imply that the people will like to purchase them. It is assumed that, the cost of these appliances will be in the affordable range. On the other hand, if the appliances are costly due to their high energy efficient nature, then it will lead to turmoil and the desired sales might not be achieved. Hence, more details regarding the appliances need to be furnished. Also, the energy efficiency must be quantified, in order to compare it with the value that existed ten years ago. For instance, if the energy efficiency of the appliances was 4% ten years back, now it will be 8% and it no great improvement. Thus, the authors ideas have to be substantiated with quantified data.

Moreover, new technologies for home insulation and passive solar heating are quoted to be readily available to decrease the energy required for home heating. The applicability and the feasibility of these technologies, must be mentioned in the argument. Unless, these technologies are inbuilt in the appliances, there is no assurance that, it will yield the desired benefits. Furthermore, whether heating will readily replace, the energy produced by electricity has to be determined. If the energy cannot be compensated, then there will be more demand for electiricity and people will not prefer to use heating technology. Moreover, some people can resort to electricity, despite the advantages of solar heating being obvious. Hence, more information regarding the nature of people and their income levels, must be specified in order to arrive at the decision, regarding the demand for electricity.

Above all, the author assumes that the currently existing three of the electric generating plants, will continue to function in a normal manner. The state of the electric generating plants must be explicitly stated. Otherwise, there arises a doubt, whether plants which have been working for 20 years, will be able to sustain for a long period of time. Also, the author assumes that the demand for electricity will almost remain same in the years to come. On the other hand, if some unforeseen circumstance, such as the population explosion occurs, then more electricity plants will needed to be constructed.

Thus, the author assumes a lot of details in presenting his argument; most of them remain unwarranted; some of them include: the survey being conducted very recently, affordability of the appliances, considerable energy efficiency of the new devices, applicability and feasibility of the newly introduced technologies, the guaranteed normal functioning of the electric generating plants. If these assumptions prove warranted, then the argument given in the memorandum can be assumed to be true, and we can anticipate decrease in the consumption of electricity.