A recently issued twenty-year study on headaches suffered by the residents of Mentia investigated the possible therapeutic effect of consuming salicylates. Salicylates are members of the same chemical family as aspirin, a medicine used to treat headaches.

The report the health experts in the study base their prediction upon appears reasonable. A closer look at the premises of the report reveals that it fails to show how the rise in the consumption of salicylates and future use as an additive would reduce headaches in Mentia.

The report’s first claim that there is a correlation in the rise of commercial use of salicylates and decline in headaches of residents is unsubstantiated. For the report’s claim to be valid, it has to show that the participants in the study consumed significant quantities of salicylates. How many participants reported or were observed consuming salicylates? This is because the individuals who consume this chemical may be different from those who suffer headaches.The report also has to provide a time frame to prove the correlation. For instance, did Mentia residents increase consumption of salicylates in May and there was a steady decline of headaches after that. These evidences would strengthen the report’s claim on the effectiveness of salicylates. The report also needs to exclude convincingly other factors that may cause a reduction in headaches. For instance did Mentians change their lifestyle such that it is not stressful? Are Mentia’s residents consuming natural salicylates hence the reduction in headaches? Answers to question as this would help evaluate the report’s argument.

The report also claims that companies plan to use salicylates in food additives. The health experts prediction based on this assumption is highly flawed. The fact that companies plan to use salicylates as a food additive is not proof that Mentia’s residents would buy these products. For the experts to strengthen their claim, they need to show that Mentian residents would purchase the food products and also show that the quantity of salicylates that would comprise the food additive is sufficient to relieve headaches.

Another factor, the health experts failed to consider before their prediction is; is Salicylates the only therapeutic effect for headaches? If Mentian residents engage in other headache and stress inducing behavior and do not change, would the consumption of commercial salicylates still relieve the pain?

In summary, the health experts have based their prediction on a study that does not convincingly show the effectiveness of salicylates as relieve for headache and also does not show how the consumption of salicylates would reduce the incidence of headaches. To support their prediction, the experts have to show a cogent link between the commercial use of salicylates and how it would reduce the future occurence of headache.