The following is a recommendation from the business manager of Monarch Books Since its opening in Collegeville twenty years ago Monarch Books has developed a large customer base due to its reader friendly atmosphere and wide selection of books on all subj

The business manager of Monarch Books suggests to replace the children's books section with a cafe in order to beat the predicted competition with the to-be-introduced Book and Bean store in Collegeville area. Moreover, he bases his conclusion on the assumption that children' books' sales will be on decline quoting the census data. At first sight, this argument seems plausible. On scrutiny, it is found to be rife with holes and assumptions. The manager's recommendation cannot be implemented without a thorough analysis of the assumptions involved in the argument.

Firstly, the author suggests the opening of in-store cafe in Monarch Books, owing to the introduction of cafe in Book and Bean stores. This suggestion is based on the assumption that cafe will successfully run in Book and Bean stores and draw more customers. On the other hand, Book and Bean has not yet started a book store at Collegeville area. Hence, to predict the outcome of introducing a cafe, in a place meant for the sale of books, is immature. The author has committed the flaw of correlation-causation fallacy. It might be the case that Monarch Books, inspite of not introducing a cafe section, do extremely well or even outdo Book and Bean in terms of sales and customer satisfaction. Moreover, the author assumes that Book and Bean had been successful elsewhere in the near past. Those details have to be presented for the readers to get a clear picture. If this is Book and Bean's start-up venture, then it might not augur well and fail to compete with Monarch Books which has been in the book selling arena for around twenty years.

Secondly, the author says that Monarch books must do away with the children's section of books due to the results of a recent national census. He mentions that the census quoted a 'significant' decline in the percentage of population aged under ten. On the contrary, the word 'significant' has to be quantified in order to get an unambiguous picture. What is considered 'significant' by the author, might not be so for others. Hence extra details regarding the census need to be provided. The author comes to a hasty generalization that, because of the decrease in the count of children, the sales of children' books will go down. There might be scenarios where in, people from outstations can come to the bookstore and buy books for their children. On the other hand, the residents of Collegeville might purchase books for the children of their relatives living elsewhere. Hence, absence of children in Collegeville cannot be blindly accounted for doing away with Children's books.

Thirdly, the author reaches a hasty conclusion equating replacement of children's book section with cafe to yield good monetary results. The preferences of the people visiting bookstores might vary. For example, most of the people can visit the bookstore for the sheer joy of purchasing and reading the best books. They might not be carried away by the cafe. In the worst case, introduction of cafe can turn the bookstore into a noisy place and ward off readers who prefer a serene place to glide through the books before purchasing them. Hence, there is a possibility that introduction of cafe might severely affect the sales of Monarch books. When the reputation of Book and Bean is not firmly established, it is near to impossible to predict if it will take over Monarch books.

Thus, the argument by the business manager of Monarch books has lots of unstated assumptions which render it implausible and erroneous: the reputation and previous sales history of Book and Bean; relevance of the term 'significant' to suit a proper number; neglect of other factors that might lead to an increase in children' books' sale; valid reason for introducing a cafeteria in a book store. The argument can be strengthened if the author firmly establishes the reputation and previous history of Book and Bean like turn-over, number of years of service etc... He has to firmly argue with evidence that the children' books' sale will decline for sure. Furthermore, a proper reason has to be given for introducing a cafe inside a book store. Only if the assumptions found are substantiated with convincing evidence, can the recommendation from the business manager can be taken further for implementation.