173The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.The population on Balmer Island doubles during the summer months. During the summer, then, the town council of Balmer Island should decrease the maximum number of moped renta

In this argument, the author recommends that the town council of Balmer Island should decrease the moped rentals to assuage its moped accidents. It seems plausible at the first glance, however, there are flaws in the assumptions mentioned by the author which weaken the reliability and feasibility of the advice.

Due to the increasing number of visitors, the author assumes that moped rentals must rise up either. However, the author here fails to see other possible transportation tools people may use. For example, thanks to the beautiful summertime and pleasant weather, majority people may prefer to walk instead of renting mopeds. Then it is not clear whether the rentals of mopeds will be raised.

Even though the rentals of mopeds rise up, however, it is unwarranted to say they are the reason to cause accidents although they got involved in the incidents. Because the author does not mention any details of the accidents. Perhaps pedestrians can be hurt by their own rashness and carelessness: when they cross the street with their ear-plug in their ears and drown themselves in melody but fail to recognize the traffic light. Or perhaps, people may get hurt when they practice their skills on riding a moped. In both conditions, the mopeds can not be blamed for the accidents. Therefore, even decrease the rentals of moped, the rate of accidents may not decline as the author's expectation. Unless the author rules out these and those possible reasons, this assumption can not effectively and convincingly support his/her recommendation.

In addition, citing a successful example of the neighboring island of Torseau which implements the similar actions about reducing moped rentals, the author tries to illustrate the promising success BI can have if they follow the same actions. However, there is lack of information about two islands such as rate of accidents, population, and landscape features. For example, Torseau Island may receive less visitors last year and the number of accidents may decline, but the rate of accidents can be still high. And different landscape features can cause moped accidents either. If TI has tough mountainous landscape, riding moped can be a dangerous activity, and the implementation can be useful for it. Nevertheless, BI may has plain landscape, then the cause of moped accidents can be various, only accurate solutions can be effective.

To sum up, although superficially, moped accidents should be caused by moped and decrease its rentals must be beneficial to the declination of accidents , the truth may not like that and without well-rounded information and valid survey, it is irresponsible for the author to get the conclusion. Besides, suggestions like sending pamphlets to tourists and providing lectures on moped riding skills can also improve people's awareness on safety.