"To serve the housing needs of our students, Buckingham College should build a newdormitory. Buckingham's enrollment is growing and, based on current trends, should double over the next fifty years, thus making existing dormitories inadequate. Moreover, t

The director recommends building a number of new dormitories at Buckingham College. To support this recommendation the author cites following facts: (1) Its enrollment is growing at a fast pace and this trend will make existing dormitory space inadequate; (2) the average rent for off-campus housing has risen recently; and (3) attractive new dormitories will increase enrollment at Buckingham College. Close scrutiny of each of these facts however reveals that these facts render little credible support to the recommendation.

Firstly, the director assumes that enrollment is going to grow at the same pace in the future. The director neglects the possibility that the number of enrollment at Buckingham College will either decline or reach a stable plateau. Perhaps the recent increase in the number of enrollment is due to introduction of new degree programs such that further increase in the number of enrollment is not justified.

Secondly, it is assumed that average rent for an apartment is representative of other student housing options in the town. Perhaps rental rates in other student housing options such as student-hostels and home-stay have decreased recently, while the rental rates in apartment have increased.

Thirdly, the director assumes the current trend in rental rates will continue in the future. However, rental rates are determined by supply and demand dynamics. Therefore, potential increase in the supply of student housing might deflate the rental rates in the future.

Moreover, the argument is based on the assumption that increases in the number of enrollment cause demand for student housing to increase as well. Perhaps, the increase in the number of enrollment is driven primarily by students who commute to the college from their parents’ home. If this is the case, then there will not be any need for building new dormitories to accommodate increasing number of students.

Finally, the director assumes attractive new dormitories are sufficient to increase likelihood of enrollment at Buckingham. While this might be the case, perhaps prospective students care more about the reputation of the college, job placement record, and the college’s location than attractive dormitories. If this is the case, then building new dormitories alone may not be sufficient to increase the probability of enrollment at Buckingham College.

In conclusion, the recommendation to build new dormitories at Buckingham College as it stands is not convincing. To strengthen the recommendation, the director need to provide information about whether the total number of enrollment and the number of students seeking student housing are going to increase in the future as expected. Moreover, evidence that corroborates following facts will lender more credible support for the recommendation; (1) apartment is indeed primary off-campus housing option; (2) the supply of the student housing is not going to increase with the increase in the number of students seeking student housing; and (3) prospective students consider attractive dormitories as a major factor in enrollment decision.