The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
The following argument is not cogent for numerous reasons. Primarily, the argument is based on an unwarranted assumption that the demand for oil will increase in the future, rendering its main conclusion, that the investment in the companies in the business of sale of home heating oil is justifiable, invalid.
The argument fails to provide any justification that the main home heating fuel in the region is oil. The investment advisor contend that most homes use oil as their main heating fuel but does not provide any evidence for the statement. The homes can be heated using new technologies or new sources of energy such as electricity. The argument would have been stronger had it provided any veracious and authentic information about the homes in the vicinity. Any strong statistics of the status of houses and their heating systems would make the argument credible.
Furthermore, the consultant avers that the climate forecasters are definitely true that the cold weather will continue for several years. But the investors cannot depend on cold climate stability because weather changes suddenly and the probability of the prediction accuracy decreases for the longer periods of time. Additionally, global warming which is a worldwide event is an important factor that rejects the idea of cold weather continuity. However, a reliable reference to the reports of meteorology bureau on the weather patterns can strengthen the argument.
Finally, it is mentioned in the letter that the recently constructed houses in the region can cause higher oil demands. Although the new houses require a heating source to be warmed, the argument does not provide any proof that the new houses’ heating systems are based on oil. An important factor in a building construction is the heating and cooling ways. The technological advances have created new methods, such as floor heating and electricity based systems, to moderate the temperature of a building in heating and cooling seasons. Hence, the new houses might have been built using new methods that does not utilize fossil fuels. Had the argument provided evidence that the new houses use oil as their major fuel for heating, it would have been stronger.
To wrap it up, the argument is not tenable because it makes some unwarranted assumptions. It concludes that investing in the business of home heating oil will be profitable because of the increase in the oil demand in the future. Nonetheless, it does not provide veracious documents to support the presumptive growing amount of oil usage.
- TPO23 – Independent: A/D? In today's world, it is more important to work quickly and risk making mistakes than to work slowly and make sure that everything is correct. 70
- Independent TOEFL essay - TPO 5: Agree or disagree : People today spend too much time on personal enjoyment - Doing things they like to do - rather than doing things they should do. 90
- TOEFL Sample essay : integrated essay from TPO7 80
- TPO 18 – Independent: A/D? Students are more influenced by their teachers than by their friends. 70
- TOEFL Sample essay : integrated essay from TPO6 90
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 3, column 238, Rule ID: ENGLISH_WORD_REPEAT_BEGINNING_RULE
Message: Three successive sentences begin with the same word. Reword the sentence or use a thesaurus to find a synonym.
...provide any evidence for the statement. The homes can be heated using new technolog...
^^^
Line 3, column 331, Rule ID: ENGLISH_WORD_REPEAT_BEGINNING_RULE
Message: Three successive sentences begin with the same word. Reword the sentence or use a thesaurus to find a synonym.
... sources of energy such as electricity. The argument would have been stronger had i...
^^^
Line 3, column 564, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
...stems would make the argument credible. Furthermore, the consultant avers that t...
^^^^^
Line 9, column 340, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
...resumptive growing amount of oil usage.
^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
but, finally, furthermore, hence, however, if, nonetheless, so, then, in conclusion, such as
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 17.0 19.6327345309 87% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 11.0 12.9520958084 85% => OK
Conjunction : 9.0 11.1786427146 81% => OK
Relative clauses : 13.0 13.6137724551 95% => OK
Pronoun: 23.0 28.8173652695 80% => OK
Preposition: 37.0 55.5748502994 67% => OK
Nominalization: 20.0 16.3942115768 122% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2152.0 2260.96107784 95% => OK
No of words: 412.0 441.139720559 93% => More content wanted.
Chars per words: 5.22330097087 5.12650576532 102% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.50530610838 4.56307096286 99% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.80979076108 2.78398813304 101% => OK
Unique words: 188.0 204.123752495 92% => More unique words wanted.
Unique words percentage: 0.456310679612 0.468620217663 97% => OK
syllable_count: 675.0 705.55239521 96% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 5.0 4.96107784431 101% => OK
Article: 13.0 8.76447105788 148% => OK
Subordination: 1.0 2.70958083832 37% => OK
Conjunction: 1.0 1.67365269461 60% => OK
Preposition: 2.0 4.22255489022 47% => More preposition wanted as sentence beginning.
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 20.0 19.7664670659 101% => OK
Sentence length: 20.0 22.8473053892 88% => OK
Sentence length SD: 41.5849732476 57.8364921388 72% => OK
Chars per sentence: 107.6 119.503703932 90% => OK
Words per sentence: 20.6 23.324526521 88% => OK
Discourse Markers: 4.6 5.70786347227 81% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 4.0 5.25449101796 76% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 10.0 8.20758483034 122% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 7.0 6.88822355289 102% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 3.0 4.67664670659 64% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.27386186877 0.218282227539 125% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0911265766631 0.0743258471296 123% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0770807117001 0.0701772020484 110% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.152235203418 0.128457276422 119% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0568748854665 0.0628817314937 90% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 13.5 14.3799401198 94% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 51.18 48.3550499002 106% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 11.1 12.197005988 91% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 13.0 12.5979740519 103% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 9.07 8.32208582834 109% => OK
difficult_words: 116.0 98.500998004 118% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 11.0 12.3882235529 89% => OK
gunning_fog: 10.0 11.1389221557 90% => OK
text_standard: 10.0 11.9071856287 84% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 66.67 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 4.0 Out of 6
---------------------
Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.