The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors."Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food s

In this argument, the author proposes that Old Dairy stockholders sell their shares and other investors not purchase stock in this company. This suggestion is based on a recent survey indicating a desire to reduce intake of high-energy foods, the abundance of low-fat products in stores and the assertion of an undoubted decrease of Old Dairy Industries for its high-energy food products. Nonetheless, some crucial evidence fail to be provided, which seriously undermine the cogency of the conclusion.

As the author mentions, the reply of more than 80 percent of respondents illustrates a tendency of people reducing their intake of food with high calorie. He apparently premises the reliability and objectivity of the survey. Yet the probability of a low response rate and biased answers should not be precluded. For instance, most individuals with no desire of reducing high-energy food intake who accepted the inquiry tend to conceal their real opinion and even refuse to provide their reply. In this condition, a prediction of the people’s preference for low-fat food based on a report with low response rate would be unwarranted. Therefore more details about the response of survey are required to guarantee its authenticity.

Even though there is a desire of avoiding intake of food with high calorie, the abundant low-fat food supply can hardly indicate the tendency of people preferring it to their original choice. The author clearly possesses that an increase of displayed products implies individuals’ alter in their choice of food. He might neglect the probability, however, that people’s health condition and requirements of food is so various that one type of food can hardly be discarded merely because of the popularity of another type. For instance, those individuals with more requests of fats and cholesterol will choice high-energy foods regardless of the abundance of low-fat food. Accordingly we need more convincing research to explicate the tendency of food requirement in the market.

Even if the trend of altering food intake is inevitable, food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries will not necessarily cause great diminishment in sales and profit. The author obviously assumes that the company has unvaried food stock and constant strategies of management. Nevertheless, except for food high in fat and cholesterol, a considerable proportion of other sorts of food can possibly be stored in Old Dairy Industries, which mainly makes the company able to achieve prosperity in business. Besides, there is no denying that the company is likely to alter its selling measures to adjust to the market change. In this case, the author is required to present more evidence to explain the definite relevance of market change and the decline of the company’s sale.

Conclusively, the author attempts to suggest Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company. Nonetheless, his failure of presenting some critical evidence severely impairs the validity of his conclusion.