The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette."On Balmer Island, where mopeds serve as a popular form of transportation, the population increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involv

In order to reduce the number of accidents with mopeds, which are a popular mean of island's transportation, and pedestrians, the town's committee should implement policy which has demonstrated its efficiency on the neighboring island of Seaville. The writer of the text predicts that proposed policy will lead to 50 per cent annual reduction in accidents which are involved mopeds. The recommendation and prediction is buttressed by evidence which should be questioned in order to give a comprehensive estimation of their soundness.

The main evidence which is used by the originator of the argument is that the neighboring island Seaville has acquired a remarkable reduction in the accidents. The 50 per cent reduction is significant, at the same time, perhaps some other factors have led to the decline in accidents except the policy. For instance, island's council may prohibit selling any kind of alcohol on the island or have fulfilled an effective campaign which makes riders to be more careful and attentive to other motorists and pedestrians. In other words, the likeliness exists that the striking decline is caused by other causes neglected by the author.

Moreover, the extrapolation of Seaville experience on the Balmer island seems to be unwarranted. Do these two islands are equal or similar to each other. Perhaps Seaville may have better or even new mopeds when Balmer may possess old and unsafe ones. Moreover, the island infrastructure may differ significantly. Do roads, their quality and mainteinace are equal on both island? Probably, they are not and therefore, the policy which has had a success on Seaville may not cause the expected result on Balmer.

Additionally to it, the author assumes that reduction of the number of mopeds which are available for tourists will be successful. At the same time, we know that demand brings supply, thus the number of the island's companies which provide mopeds for renting may be doubled in the response on the policy. In this case, the policy will not be successful. What is more, imagine that the proposed policy is implemented successfully. The island tourists may still cause the accidents as pedestrians. Probably, the visitors tend to breach the traffic code, for instance, cross the road where and when they want; thus they are the cause of accidents. In this case, the policy will not reduce the number of accidents as the author claims.

In conclusion, the author avers that reduction of number of mopeds which are available for renting by tourists will drastically reduce the number of accidents in which the mopeds involved. Unfortunately, the writer of the letter has failed to create a sound argument due to the fact that Seaville experience should not be extrapolated on Balmer's case and the possibility exists that the success of the policy is caused by unstated reasons which were not taken into account by the author. Thus, the recommendation and prediction is unwarranted.