Arugument type - The following appeared in a memorandum from the planning department of an electric power company. "Several recent surveys indicate that home owners are increasingly eager to conserve energy. At the same time, manufacturers are now marke
The following appeared in a memorandum from the planning department of an electric power company.
"Several recent surveys indicate that home owners are increasingly eager to conserve energy. At the same time, manufacturers are now marketing many home appliances, such as refrigerators and air conditioners, that are almost twice as energy efficient as those sold a decade ago. Also, new technologies for better home insulation and passive solar heating are readily available to reduce the energy needed for home heating. Therefore, the total demand for electricity in our area will not increase—and may decline slightly. Since our three electric generating plants in operation for the past twenty years have always met our needs, construction of new generating plants will not be necessary."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
COMPOSITION:
The writer of the memorandum, who claims that construction of new generating plants will not be necessary, seems to offer a cogent argument. However, the writer makes a lot of tenable stated and unstated assumptions, even the superficial correlations are seemingly logical. And there is a list of the results of those assumptions above examined as follows, of which results reveals the fallacies in his/her reasoning.
First of all, the writer cites several recent surveys to reinforce his/her argument in that these surveys indicate that home owners are increasingly eager to conserve energy, with an obvious assumption that these surveys could also apply to their area, and also give the credit to these surveys. However, it is entirely possible that the home owner in their area is not eager to conserve energy, perhaps instead profusion on energy. And, perhaps these surveys are conducted by the manufacturers which produce home appliances with excellent energy efficiencies and have the purpose of inducing wide usage of energy efficient appliances, while the fact may be opposite. Thus, with the lack of evidence to support the assumptions, the writer cannot convince me that the total energy is going to decline.
Secondly, the writer assumes pontifically that the more energy efficient, the less energy consumption there will be. However, it is not always true. For example, it is also possible that the total energy consumption is rising with excellent efficiencies due to the augment in need of increasing in numbers of home appliances. Even if energy efficient ones do consume less energy than the older one, the writer also assumes unjustly that the most appliances in our area are made up of the energy-efficient appliances which the manufacturers are marketing. Nevertheless, it is possible that most appliances are still the older ones, which is not that efficient and cost less energy. Thus, it is unfair to conclude such a claim that the total demand for electricity in their area will not increase-and may decline, without checking the reliability of the assumptions above.
What's more, the writer also assumes that for the past twenty years have always met their needs doesn't necessarily means next year ,then the needs would also be able met as well. On one hand, considering the development of society, it is entirely possible that the energy would increase as more and more appliances come into everyone home. Anyway, it is natural that things would change with the time flies. On the other hand, what if the tendency of the demand of electricity in their area is increasing, and in the last year the demand just met the supply? Then it is natural to predict that in the next year the demand would likely to be over the supply.
Without careful evaluation of these dubious assumptions, the writer cannot convince me that the construction of new generating plants is not necessary.
All in all, without justification of the reliability of the survey he/she discussed, credibility of the assumption of proportional relationship between the efficiency and the consumption and the assumption of the tendency that the demand will not increase, the author cannot convince me that construction of new generating plant is unnecessary.
please reply as soon as possible
- The following is a letter to the editor of an environmental magazine."In 1975 a wildlife census found that there were seven species of amphibians in Xanadu National Park, with abundant numbers of each species. However, in 2002 only four species of amphibi 61
- Argument Type - The following is a letter to the editor of the Waymarsh Times. "Traffic here in Waymarsh is becoming a problem. Although just three years ago a state traffic survey showed that the typical driving commuter took 20 minutes to get to work, 80
- Issue Type - It is primarily through our identification with social groups that we define ourselves. 75
- The president of Grove College has recommended that the college abandon its century-old tradition of all-female education and begin admitting men. Pointing to other all-female colleges that experienced an increase in applications after adopting coeducatio 55
- Argument Type - The following appeared in a memo from a vice president of Quiot Manufacturing. "During the past year, Quiot Manufacturing had 30 percent more on-the-job accidents than at the nearby Panoply Industries plant, where the work shifts are one 60
Sentence: And, perhaps these surveys are conducted by the manufacturers which produce home appliances with excellent energy efficiencies and have the purpose of inducing wide usage of energy efficient appliances, while the fact may be opposite.
Description: The fragment which produce home is rare
Suggestion: Possible agreement error: Replace produce with verb, present tense, 3rd person singular
Sentence: However, the writer makes a lot of tenable stated and unstated assumptions, even the superficial correlations are seemingly logical.
Error: tenable Suggestion: No alternate word
Error: unstated Suggestion: No alternate word
Sentence: Secondly, the writer assumes pontifically that the more energy efficient, the less energy consumption there will be.
Error: pontifically Suggestion: No alternate word
Sentence: Even if energy efficient ones do consume less energy than the older one, the writer also assumes unjustly that the most appliances in our area are made up of the energy-efficient appliances which the manufacturers are marketing.
Error: energy-efficient Suggestion: energy efficient
flaws:
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.75 0.12 (check out online what is Discourse Markers)
Attribute Value Ideal
Score: 4.5 out of 6
Category: Good Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 1 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 3 2
No. of Sentences: 20 15
No. of Words: 532 350
No. of Characters: 2660 1500
No. of Different Words: 218 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.803 4.7
Average Word Length: 5 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.792 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 188 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 137 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 96 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 68 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 26.6 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 10.777 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.75 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.336 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.486 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.135 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 4 5