The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.
Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
The argument states that due to the harsh winter that people have experienced as well the growth of population in northeastern United States, it calls for the investment in consolidated industries whose one of the major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil. The argument seems logical at first glance, however, upon closer examination, there are some assumptions needed to be justified to strengthen its recommendation; otherwise, the argument is not persuasive.
First of all, the argument asserts that people in northeastern United States have experienced a serious winter and climate forecasters predict it will continue for several more years. Although the argument makes a logical sense, however, we cannot ensure that if the upcoming weather prediction is valid or not. There is no way we can guarantee the future weather conditions and the assumptions may be fallacious since if a milder winter or a hotter one happen in the next year, the investment in heating oil may appear to be redundant. Also, the argument posits the climate forecasters’ prediction. Is there another prediction which holds an opposite opinion? If so, it weakens the assumptions and therefore the investment is unnecessary. Thus, the argument should assure that the prediction about weather conditions is valid to support its recommendation; otherwise the correctness of it is in doubt.
Secondly, the argument avers that in order to meet the growth of population and meet the need of expansion in the region, the investment in heating oil is indispensable. The recommendation seems to be true, but the argument mistakenly assume that no people are moving out as well. People who have lived in this area can also move out for various reasons. For example, workers who find jobs in other regions may choose to move out with their families. Given that situation to be true, the need to invest heating oil is unnecessary since new residents can simply buy an existing house as well as used applications.
Moreover, a further flaw is, even though the assumptions mentioned above is valid, the argument seems to omit the correlation between the demands of heating oil and the growth of population. If the growth of population does necessitate the investment in heating oil? New residents may choose to use electrical applications such as a heater to replace a traditional one, which is powered by heating oil. If so, the investment in heating oil will not work. What type of heating applications will people choose to use? We don’t know that. Consequently, the argument has to warrantee the assumption in order to justify its recommendation.
To sum up, the argument seems to be reasonable, however, additional information is needed to be added: the validity of weather prediction, the solid indication of population growth and the residents’ choices regarding to the heating applications.
| Post date | Users | Rates | Link to Content |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-06-09 | noobmaster69 | 29 | view |
| 2018-03-08 | hallihallo | 55 | view |
| 2016-10-08 | foisal | 50 | view |
| 2014-10-05 | rambling123 | 70 | view |
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Comments
Essay evaluation report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: ??? out of 6
Category: Poor Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 22 15
No. of Words: 468 350
No. of Characters: 2361 1500
No. of Different Words: 215 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.651 4.7
Average Word Length: 5.045 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.976 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 178 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 135 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 94 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 72 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 21.273 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 11.112 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.864 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.325 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.503 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.1 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, but, consequently, first, however, if, may, moreover, regarding, second, secondly, so, then, therefore, thus, well, as to, for example, such as, as well as, first of all, to sum up
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 23.0 19.6327345309 117% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 14.0 12.9520958084 108% => OK
Conjunction : 9.0 11.1786427146 81% => OK
Relative clauses : 14.0 13.6137724551 103% => OK
Pronoun: 21.0 28.8173652695 73% => OK
Preposition: 62.0 55.5748502994 112% => OK
Nominalization: 37.0 16.3942115768 226% => Less nominalizations (nouns with a suffix like: tion ment ence ance) wanted.
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2449.0 2260.96107784 108% => OK
No of words: 467.0 441.139720559 106% => OK
Chars per words: 5.24411134904 5.12650576532 102% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.64867537961 4.56307096286 102% => OK
Word Length SD: 3.12353281177 2.78398813304 112% => OK
Unique words: 223.0 204.123752495 109% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.477516059957 0.468620217663 102% => OK
syllable_count: 767.7 705.55239521 109% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 4.0 4.96107784431 81% => OK
Article: 17.0 8.76447105788 194% => OK
Subordination: 5.0 2.70958083832 185% => OK
Conjunction: 1.0 1.67365269461 60% => OK
Preposition: 2.0 4.22255489022 47% => More preposition wanted as sentence beginning.
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 22.0 19.7664670659 111% => OK
Sentence length: 21.0 22.8473053892 92% => OK
Sentence length SD: 68.7433843549 57.8364921388 119% => OK
Chars per sentence: 111.318181818 119.503703932 93% => OK
Words per sentence: 21.2272727273 23.324526521 91% => OK
Discourse Markers: 8.45454545455 5.70786347227 148% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 0.0 5.25449101796 0% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 7.0 8.20758483034 85% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 6.0 6.88822355289 87% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 9.0 4.67664670659 192% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.18402192856 0.218282227539 84% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0577096839462 0.0743258471296 78% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0608462274297 0.0701772020484 87% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.107283908723 0.128457276422 84% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0501903195108 0.0628817314937 80% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 13.9 14.3799401198 97% => OK
flesch_reading_ease: 50.16 48.3550499002 104% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 11.5 12.197005988 94% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 13.11 12.5979740519 104% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.36 8.32208582834 100% => OK
difficult_words: 109.0 98.500998004 111% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 19.5 12.3882235529 157% => OK
gunning_fog: 10.4 11.1389221557 93% => OK
text_standard: 14.0 11.9071856287 118% => OK
What are above readability scores?
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Rates: 66.67 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 4.0 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.