158. The following appeared in a memo from the marketing director of Top Dog Pet Stores."Five years ago, Fish Emporium started advertising in the magazine Exotic Pets Monthly. Their stores saw sales increase by 15 percent. The three Fish Emporium stores i

In this memo, the author claims that advertising Top Dog can improve sales and make a profit for the reason that the advertisements of Fish Emporium have made the sales of Fish Emporium increase by 15%. At the first glance, this argument seems plausible, however, a close scrutiny reveals its untenability.

At the first place, the author mistakenly contributes the reason of increasing sales of Fish Emporium to the advertisements in Exotic Pets Monthly. He neglects many possibilities, for example, perhaps Fish Emporium stores are advertising Fish Emporium in other magazines or through other channels simultaneously. The other possible reason of increasing sale is that buying Fish Emporium as pets is a trend currently. Without ruling out these possibilities, the arguer cannot conclude the only reason of the increase sale of Fish Emporium is advertisements in Exotic Pets Monthly and placing ads in this magazine takes risk of losing more money.

Secondly, the author mistakenly equals the sale of Fish Emporium to the sale of dogs. The author overlooks a strong possibility that the readers of Exotic Pets Monthly are more likely to buy fishes as pets rather than buy a dog. Without more information about the income and penchant of readers, placing advertisements in Exotic Pets Monthly is unjustifiable. If the revenue cannot overbear the cost for advertising, it is pretty hard for Top Dog to make a profit again.

At the third place, suppose advertisement in Exotic Pets Monthly do attract more people to interest in petting a dog, it does not mean Top Dog can be more attractive than before after advertising even though Top Dog have largest stores in Gulf City. In the memo, Top Dog does not mention any condition about its competitors. The buyers may be more likely to purchase a dog from its competitors for the possible reasons that there are more lovely dogs and lower prices. Ignoring severe competitions of other stores, the author cannot guarantee the increase after advertising.

In conclusion, the author fails to prove advertising Top Dog in the magazine would help it to make a profit at least bases on this memo. To make the argument more persuasive, more through information should be provided about the advertisement of Fish Emporium. The statistics about readers of Exotic Pets Monthly and competitions of Top Dog are also appreciated.