The following appeared in a memo to the board of directors of a company that specializes in the delivery of heating oil.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season, that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we can safely predict that this region will experience an increased demand for heating oil during the next five years."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
The author of the memo predicts that the demand for heating oil will increase in the next five years in the North-Eastern United States. The reasons he cites are - most homes in the northeastern US traditionally use oil for heating during winters, in the last heating season, the region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures and finally, the climate forcasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. However, before this claim can be properly evaluated, we will need answers to the following questions.
What is the number of homes in the northeastern US that use oil as their major fuel for heating during winters? The author mentions that most homes use oil for heating but does not give a particular number which makes us skeptical about the author's prediction. It may be the case that there are only a few hundreds of homes in the northeastern US and even if all of them use oil for heating, it may not be a propitious business for the company as manufacturing oil for such a puny number may outweigh the investment required to manufacture the oil. The author also mentions that the region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures and again, the author's evidence seems ambigous as the question that immediately follows is - How far are the temperatures below the normal temperature? Perhaps, the temperatures are only slightly below the normal temperature and those temperatures does not mandate the people to heat their houses aggrasively with oil. Or, the temperatures are negligebly below the normal so that the folks can get away with hot beverages by their side throughout the day. If either of the scenarios have merit, then the author's argument is significnalty weakened.
Moreover, if the climate forecasters predict that a similar weather pattern will continue in the years to come, does this forecast coerce the folks in the region to move southwards during the winters? When there is a scientific evidence that shows similar weather patterns will continue in the upcoming years as well, it is highly probable that poeple in the region can brainstorm on how to mitigate such scenarios and come up with the idea of temporarly traversing to a warmer region. It is plausible that the cost of keeping the house warm throughout the day during winters may transcend the cost of moving to warmer region and thus, duress the people in the region to temporarly shift to a warmer regsion. If this is the case, then contrary to the author's prediction, the demand for oil would in fact fall.
Do the new homes that are being built to accomodate the increasing population use the traditional system of heating? The author prematurely assumes that the new homes would be using oil to keep the houses warm during winter. However, it is a facial assumption, in as much as the author does not provide any specific evidence to bolster his assumption. Nowadays, there are advanced heating technologies that are used keep the house warm. These heating technologies have a very low carbon footprint, easy to maintain unlike heating systems that use oil as fuel and cost much lesser. Hence, it is may not be fallacious to assume that the new houses that are being built would be adoption newer and advanced heating technologies rather than using oil for heating. If this turns out to be true, then the author's recommendation would indeed have adverse effects and the company would be in precarious position if it takes the author's view point seriously.
In conclusion, the argument, as it stands nows, is considerably flawed as it relies on a series of unwarrented assumptions and, we will be able to properly evaluate the author's argument if the author can provide answers to the above questions in a detailed mannered, perhaps in the form of a systematic study.
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Comments
e-rater score report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 4.0 out of 6
Category: Good Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 22 15
No. of Words: 641 350
No. of Characters: 3121 1500
No. of Different Words: 266 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 5.032 4.7
Average Word Length: 4.869 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.742 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 221 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 164 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 115 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 68 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 29.136 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 12.33 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.682 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.335 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.53 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.167 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 4, column 242, Rule ID: POSSESIVE_APOSTROPHE[2]
Message: Possible typo: apostrophe is missing. Did you mean 'authors'' or 'author's'?
Suggestion: authors'; author's
...mber which makes us skeptical about the authors prediction. It may be the case that the...
^^^^^^^
Line 4, column 1146, Rule ID: POSSESIVE_APOSTROPHE[1]
Message: Possible typo: apostrophe is missing. Did you mean 'authors'' or 'author's'?
Suggestion: authors'; author's
...r of the scenarios have merit, then the authors argument is significnalty weakened. ...
^^^^^^^
Line 7, column 752, Rule ID: POSSESIVE_APOSTROPHE[2]
Message: Possible typo: apostrophe is missing. Did you mean 'authors'' or 'author's'?
Suggestion: authors'; author's
... this is the case, then contrary to the authors prediction, the demand for oil would in...
^^^^^^^
Line 10, column 800, Rule ID: POSSESIVE_APOSTROPHE[1]
Message: Possible typo: apostrophe is missing. Did you mean 'authors'' or 'author's'?
Suggestion: authors'; author's
... If this turns out to be true, then the authors recommendation would indeed have advers...
^^^^^^^
Line 12, column 170, Rule ID: POSSESIVE_APOSTROPHE[1]
Message: Possible typo: apostrophe is missing. Did you mean 'authors'' or 'author's'?
Suggestion: authors'; author's
...e will be able to properly evaluate the authors argument if the author can provide answ...
^^^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, but, finally, hence, however, if, may, moreover, so, then, thus, well, in conclusion, in fact
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 30.0 19.6327345309 153% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 21.0 12.9520958084 162% => OK
Conjunction : 11.0 11.1786427146 98% => OK
Relative clauses : 20.0 13.6137724551 147% => OK
Pronoun: 46.0 28.8173652695 160% => Less pronouns wanted
Preposition: 72.0 55.5748502994 130% => OK
Nominalization: 16.0 16.3942115768 98% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 3189.0 2260.96107784 141% => OK
No of words: 641.0 441.139720559 145% => Less content wanted.
Chars per words: 4.97503900156 5.12650576532 97% => OK
Fourth root words length: 5.0316973083 4.56307096286 110% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.79193238295 2.78398813304 100% => OK
Unique words: 279.0 204.123752495 137% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.435257410296 0.468620217663 93% => More unique words wanted or less content wanted.
syllable_count: 988.2 705.55239521 140% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.5 1.59920159681 94% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 9.0 4.96107784431 181% => OK
Article: 12.0 8.76447105788 137% => OK
Subordination: 7.0 2.70958083832 258% => Less adverbial clause wanted.
Conjunction: 0.0 1.67365269461 0% => OK
Preposition: 4.0 4.22255489022 95% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 22.0 19.7664670659 111% => OK
Sentence length: 29.0 22.8473053892 127% => The Avg. Sentence Length is relatively long.
Sentence length SD: 71.7685098652 57.8364921388 124% => OK
Chars per sentence: 144.954545455 119.503703932 121% => OK
Words per sentence: 29.1363636364 23.324526521 125% => OK
Discourse Markers: 4.5 5.70786347227 79% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 5.0 5.25449101796 95% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 9.0 8.20758483034 110% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 5.0 6.88822355289 73% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 8.0 4.67664670659 171% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.259799873821 0.218282227539 119% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0921234391805 0.0743258471296 124% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0907834741665 0.0701772020484 129% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.135610623318 0.128457276422 106% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0974960122953 0.0628817314937 155% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 16.6 14.3799401198 115% => OK
flesch_reading_ease: 50.5 48.3550499002 104% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 13.4 12.197005988 110% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 12.2 12.5979740519 97% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.57 8.32208582834 103% => OK
difficult_words: 142.0 98.500998004 144% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 14.0 12.3882235529 113% => OK
gunning_fog: 13.6 11.1389221557 122% => OK
text_standard: 14.0 11.9071856287 118% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Write the essay in 30 minutes.
Rates: 66.67 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 4.0 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.