The council of Maple County, concerned about the county's becoming overdeveloped, is debating a proposed measure that would prevent the development of existing farmland in the county. But the council is also concerned that such a restriction, by limiting the supply of new housing, could lead to significant increases in the price of housing in the county. Proponents of the measure note that Chestnut County established a similar measure ten years ago, and its housing prices have increased only modestly since. However, opponents of the measure note that Pine County adopted restrictions on the development of new residential housing fifteen years ago, and its housing prices have since more than doubled. The council currently predicts that the proposed measure, if passed, will result in a significant increase in housing prices in Maple County.
Write a response in which you discuss 1.what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
Being concerned about Maple Country becoming overdeveloped, the council of Maple Country puts forward a proposal to prevent the development of existing farmland. At the same time, the council is also concerned that by putting such restriction on building new homes, the supply of homes would be decreased and that may lead to a notable increase in the price of houses in the country. The argument has many vague points, each raising questions that needed to be answered by the author.
First and foremost, the council needs to ask how much of the construction would take place exclusively in the farmlands. The extent to which development restriction can have any effect on the prices, is related to how much restrictions in reality would be imposed on the building new houses. If there are not many farmlands in Maple country, then the restriction would not have any significant effect on the housing price, since there might be a significant amount of other forms of land which are proper for constructions.
Secondly, to weigh the proponents’ idea against the opponents’ idea, the author of the argument needs to ask which country is the Maple country more alike. Proponents of the measure rely on the Chestnut country’s experience that such measures did not change the price of homes in Chestnut, while opponents of the measure rely on the Pine country’s experience that the housing price got doubled after implementing such restrictions. It is possible that the situation in Maple city differs very much which is incommensurable with either of the towns. For instance the climate and the geographic features might be quite different defying any reasonable comparison between these towns.
Finally, even if the Maple count’s situation is comparable to both of these towns, the author needs to ask whether the other elements were also involved in such a long time interval to affect the prices. As it seems, the opponents of restrictions convinced the council to predict the rise in the price of housing. However, the evidence of opponents is the experience of Pine Country in “fifteen years ago” which is such a long time. It is possible that there were many other factors playing in such an increment in the prices. In all likelihood the inflation, the growth of the population, and so many other factors can have a hand in the price changes. If that is the case, then the mere restriction is not necessarily related to the rise of the prices and it casts serious doubts whether the rise in the prices happens in the Maple country.
In short, the enumerated questions, whose answers illustrates the argument, remained unaddressed by the author. Therefore, the conclusion which is based on such an inconclusive argument cannot be tenable.
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Comments
I want to defend my first
I want to defend my first argument. :)
As far as there is no evidence on the lands, the possibility that farmlands are only a part of lands in Maple city, is an undeniable possibility. There may be also other lands which were not farmlands and not suitable for farming at all.
Why this cannot be an argument against the author's conclusion?
Yes, there is the
Yes, there is the possibility. But your premise is that: if they have enough farmlands, there is not going to have price issue. This is not going to be true. The price increase or not will not only related to the farmlands.
Hi again Defend number 2 :) I
Hi again
Defend number 2 :)
I did not say that if they had enough farmlands...
I said: If there are _not_ many farmlands in Maple country, then the restriction would not have any significant effect on the housing price, since there might be a significant amount of other forms of land which are proper for construction.
Please reconsider.
This may help to clear our
This may help to clear our arguments:
The most cardinal question to be answered would entail to, how grave and realistic is the council’s fear of overdevelopment in the County? The available farmland in the county needs to be estimated and then contrasted against the county size to precisely evaluate the scope of expansion into the farmland. Another aspect to be simultaneously considered is the current population of the county and the future estimations. If the trends exhibit a rise in the population in the coming years, then restricting development will certainly cause inflation in housing prices. Hence, a plenary analysis is indispensible before raising the red flag of over development.
On the second thought, I
On the second thought, I think you are not correct . :)
look : the author is concerned about "the SUPPLY" which is "land for construction"
It is highly possible that there are other forms of land which are not "farmlands", and are suited for construction. For instance this town may be in Nevada. And by this POSSIBILITY:
__Supply would not be reduced significantly.___
Am I wrong?
here SUPPLY means 'the supply
here SUPPLY means 'the supply of new housing'. Not "land for construction".
Doesn't matter which kind of "farmlands", the size will be lesser with more constructions.
Sargument 1 -- maybe the farmlands are unlimited.
argument 2 -- OK
argument 3 -- OK
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