The following appeared in a memorandum from the planning department of an electric power company."Several recent surveys indicate that home owners are increasingly eager to conserve energy. At the same time, manufacturers are now marketing many home appli

The author of memorandum from the planning department predicts that energy generated by three existing plants will be enough to satisfy needs of local residents and thus necessity to erect new generating plants does not exist. This conclusion is buttressed by evidence which is connected with it by assumptions which should be carefully scrutinized in order to gauge the soundness of the argument.

First of all, we are told that due to current trend to preserve energy the total demand for electricity in the area will not enhance. It is true that many of today's electric items more efficient than a decade ago, however, the number of items in each household has increased. In fact, today's residents tend to use more electric devices than before. Moreover, the area may attract new dwellers and thus the demand on electricity will increase. These two examples illustrate the writer's belief that demand in electricity will not improve or even decline is not warranted.

Additionally to it, the originator of the argument maintains that due to the fact that three existing plants have always produced enough electricity, they will meet people's needs in the future. Despite the fact that this claim may sound solid, it has some loopholes. First of all, the plants' equipment may become outdate and thus it perhaps loses its previous efficiency. Moreover, as we demonstrate above the demand may increase and therefore the plants may not generate enough electricity. In other words, the plants may lose with time its efficiency due to wearing of generators and the demand on the electricity may exceed the previous level and thus the people needs may not be meet. Moreover, the plants may meets dwellers' needs due to some other factors, for instance, people may use solar panels or wind mills. In this case, these residents generate some electricity for their needs. Consequently, if they stop to do it, the demand on electricity will surely increased. All these instances showcase that author's assumption that future people's needs will be met is not warranted.

Finally, the argument asserts that a construction of a new generating plants will not be necessary. However, we have proved that existing electric plants may not cope with future demand, in this case, the erection of new plants are a necessity. Additionally to it, we know that old plants have worked during twenty years, perhaps even if they produce enough energy the technology which was used to create the plants is obsolete and these plants may not be efficient as it require today. Moreover, they may use fossil fuels and be ecologically unfriendly. In this case, building new generating plants will be beneficial.

In conclusion, the author of the argument avers that demand for electricity in the area will not increase and thus three existing plants will produce enough energy and erection of new plants is superfluous. However, we have proved that demand for energy may enhance and three plants may not meet people's necessity. Therefore, the building of new plants may be a grave necessity. Thus author's prediction is based on false assumptions.