Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic regions. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of the year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the purported decline in deer populations is the result of the deer's being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea.
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
In the given passage, the author concludes that the decreasing number of arctic deers is solely due to the global warming trends. To support the argument, the author points out that the reports, provided by local hunters, show that the deer populations are declining and that such decrease coincides with global warming trends.This argument is flawed in several critical respects and thus to evaluate the argument properly, it is necessary to have more evidences.
First of all, the author presumes that the reports provided by local hunters are credible. Although this might be the case, it is possible that the reports may be found to be false or exaggerated. There is no information given in terms of how the reports are produced, based on what statistics, and when. It is entirely possible, for example, that the local hunters did not investigate thoroughly, and thus omitted considerable number of deers in their statistics. Or, it is even possible that the majority number of reports are simply fraud. Without any corroborative evidence, this conclusion could not be evaluated adequately.
Even if the reports from local hunters are somehow guaranteed to be true, the author still confuses causal and correlational relation. It is assumed that the deer populations have decreased solely because of the global warming trends, which might be simply coinciding. It is entirely possible, for example, that the number of deers shot by local hunters have sharply increased over the past years or that there appeared a kind of toxic plant that has fatal impact on deers. Without a clear evidence that shows a causal relation between the decrease of the deer populations and the recent global warming trends, the author’s conclusion would still remain dubious.
Finally, even conceding the author’s assumptions discussed above, the author unreasonably assumes that deers must follow the age-old migration pattern to survive. Although this might be the case, it is possible that deers may not need to move as they used to feed themselves. It is entirely possible, for example, that they stop moving to other region, since more plants start to grow as the temperature raises due to global warming. Without ruling out these possibilities, the author cannot persuade us.
In sum, the argument is a specious on. To strengthen it, the author must provide clear evidence that the reports provided by local hunters are credible, that there is evident causal relation between the decrease of deer population and the recent global warming trends, and that deers must follow the age-old migration pattern to survive regardless of any circumstantial changes. If the author takes these flaws into consideration when arguing for the conclusion as suggested in the passage, then the argument might become more plausible.
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Comments
Essay evaluation report
Sentence: Even if the reports from local hunters are somehow guaranteed to be true, the author still confuses causal and correlational relation.
Error: correlational Suggestion: No alternate word
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argument 1 -- not OK. In GRE/GMAT, we have to accept all data or evidence are true. It is important to find out loopholes behind surveys or studies. Loopholes mean that we accept all surveys told are true, but there are some conditions applied, for example:
It works for time A (10 years ago), but it doesn't mean it works for time B (nowadays).
It works for location A (a city, community, nation), but it doesn't mean it works for location B (another city, community, nation).
It works for people A (a manager), but it doesn't mean it works for people B (a worker).
It works for event A (one event, project... ), but it doesn't mean it works for event B (another event, project...).
....
In this argument, we accept that 'the deer populations are declining.', but the reason may be not global warming, but hunters, like you did in argument 2.
argument 2 -- OK
argument 3 -- not OK.
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Let's analyze the structure of the statement and argue accordingly:
condition 1:
Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. //maybe hunter is the reason
condition 2:
Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, //maybe other reasons like diseases or average degrees on conditions of deer habitat are the reasons caused the decline
conclusion:
we can conclude that the purported decline in deer populations is the result of the deer's being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. //Perhaps, the ice became thinner but, anyway, it still lies above the lower border and it is still thick enough to deer to cross the sea safe.
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Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 3.0 out of 6
Category: Satisfactory Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 1 2
No. of Sentences: 19 15
No. of Words: 452 350
No. of Characters: 2298 1500
No. of Different Words: 197 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.611 4.7
Average Word Length: 5.084 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.597 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 181 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 135 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 86 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 43 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 23.789 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 11.923 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.579 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.357 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.546 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.081 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 1, column 328, Rule ID: SENTENCE_WHITESPACE
Message: Add a space between sentences
Suggestion: This
...se coincides with global warming trends.This argument is flawed in several critical ...
^^^^
Line 7, column 385, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
... region, since more plants start to grow as the temperature raises due to global ...
^^
Discourse Markers used:
['finally', 'first', 'if', 'may', 'so', 'still', 'then', 'thus', 'for example', 'kind of', 'first of all']
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance in Part of Speech:
Nouns: 0.207171314741 0.25644967241 81% => OK
Verbs: 0.171314741036 0.15541462614 110% => OK
Adjectives: 0.105577689243 0.0836205057962 126% => OK
Adverbs: 0.0577689243028 0.0520304965353 111% => OK
Pronouns: 0.0278884462151 0.0272364105082 102% => OK
Prepositions: 0.125498007968 0.125424944231 100% => OK
Participles: 0.0517928286853 0.0416121511921 124% => OK
Conjunctions: 2.71674821102 2.79052419416 97% => OK
Infinitives: 0.0278884462151 0.026700313972 104% => OK
Particles: 0.00398406374502 0.001811407834 220% => OK
Determiners: 0.107569721116 0.113004496875 95% => OK
Modal_auxiliary: 0.0239043824701 0.0255425247493 94% => OK
WH_determiners: 0.0139442231076 0.0127820249294 109% => OK
Vocabulary words and sentences:
No of characters: 2817.0 2731.13054187 103% => OK
No of words: 451.0 446.07635468 101% => OK
Chars per words: 6.24611973392 6.12365571057 102% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.60833598836 4.57801047555 101% => OK
words length more than 5 chars: 0.407982261641 0.378187486979 108% => OK
words length more than 6 chars: 0.312638580931 0.287650121315 109% => OK
words length more than 7 chars: 0.219512195122 0.208842608468 105% => OK
words length more than 8 chars: 0.124168514412 0.135150697306 92% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.71674821102 2.79052419416 97% => OK
Unique words: 206.0 207.018472906 100% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.456762749446 0.469332199767 97% => OK
Word variations: 50.6595129646 52.1807786196 97% => OK
How many sentences: 19.0 20.039408867 95% => OK
Sentence length: 23.7368421053 23.2022227129 102% => OK
Sentence length SD: 76.841744772 57.7814097925 133% => OK
Chars per sentence: 148.263157895 141.986410481 104% => OK
Words per sentence: 23.7368421053 23.2022227129 102% => OK
Discourse Markers: 0.578947368421 0.724660767414 80% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.14285714286 97% => OK
Language errors: 2.0 3.58251231527 56% => OK
Readability: 55.0007001984 51.9672348444 106% => OK
Elegance: 1.49612403101 1.8405768891 81% => OK
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.342115735418 0.441005458295 78% => OK
Sentence sentence coherence: 0.113805459814 0.135418324435 84% => OK
Sentence sentence coherence SD: 0.083471345361 0.0829849096947 101% => OK
Sentence paragraph coherence: 0.588319194834 0.58762219726 100% => OK
Sentence paragraph coherence SD: 0.155526914293 0.147661913831 105% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.15914496517 0.193483328276 82% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0641187981802 0.0970749176394 66% => OK
Paragraph paragraph coherence: 0.47893046361 0.42659136922 112% => OK
Paragraph paragraph coherence SD: 0.052105457085 0.0774707102158 67% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.262768470639 0.312017818177 84% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0349832442531 0.0698173142475 50% => OK
Task Achievement:
Sentences with positive sentiment : 6.0 8.33743842365 72% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 8.0 6.87684729064 116% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 5.0 4.82512315271 104% => OK
Positive topic words: 6.0 6.46551724138 93% => OK
Negative topic words: 6.0 5.36822660099 112% => OK
Neutral topic words: 4.0 2.82389162562 142% => OK
Total topic words: 16.0 14.657635468 109% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
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Rates: 62.5 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 3.75 Out of 6 -- The score is based on the average performance of 20,000 argument essays. This e-grader is not smart enough to check on arguments.
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.