The council of Maple County, concerned about the county's becoming overdeveloped, is debating a proposed measure that would prevent the development of existing farmland in the county. But the council is also concerned that such a restriction, by limiting the supply of new housing, could lead to significant increases in the price of housing in the county. Proponents of the measure note that Chestnut County established a similar measure ten years ago, and its housing prices have increased only modestly since. However, opponents of the measure note that Pine County adopted restrictions on the development of new residential housing fifteen years ago, and its housing prices have since more than doubled. The council currently predicts that the proposed measure, if passed, will result in a significant increase in housing prices in Maple County.
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
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1. Preventing the development of existing farmland in the county does not necessarily result in a reduced supply of new housing
- Developers could develop houses in lands that are not existing farmlands, such as uncultivated lands, or woodlands
- Developers could build higher apartment complexes, accommodating more people
- Q: are there any other lands or ways that housing developers could build more new houses?
2. Maple County does not necessarily follow the pattern of Chestnut or Pine County.
- It is possible that Maple County has a larger amount of younger people, and thus has a stronger demand for new housings than Chestnut County
- Maybe people in Chestnut County are not so keen in buying houses.
- Pine County could have a better location, such as being a satellite town of a big city.
- Q: How similar is Maple County to the other two cities?
3. Today is different from ten years ago or fifteen years ago.
- Maybe the economy now is more stagnant than those old times. So a sharp increase in housing price is less likely than before
- Q: How similar is Maple County to Chestnut ten years ago and to Pine fifteen years ago?
- Q: Is it really reasonable to predict Maple County based on Chestnut ten years ago and Pine fifteen years ago? ignoring what has changed over the years and the unique situation of each County.
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Let's analyze the structure of the statement:
condition 1:
The council of Maple County, concerned about the county's becoming overdeveloped, is debating a proposed measure that would prevent the development of existing farmland in the county. //your argument 1
condition 2:
But the council is also concerned that such a restriction, by limiting the supply of new housing, could lead to significant increases in the price of housing in the county. //your argument 2, but not exactly correct. possible arguments:
Housing prices are not determined only by the number of houses in a county. Other factors may affect, like:
*Maintenance charges, water, gas, electricity fees...
*Location of the city
*Employment opportunities of the city
*Populations
...
condition 3:
Proponents of the measure note that Chestnut County established a similar measure ten years ago, and its housing prices have increased only modestly since. However, opponents of the measure note that Pine County adopted restrictions on the development of new residential housing fifteen years ago, and its housing prices have since more than doubled. //you don't have. possible arguments:
limiting housing developments in Chestnut County 10 years ago might not be the real reason behind the modest increase in housing prices there
limiting housing developments in Pine county 15 years ago might not be the real reason behind the double price increase over there
conclusion:
The council currently predicts that the proposed measure, if passed, will result in a significant increase in housing prices in Maple County. //part of your argument 3. here need to focus on the prediction, not only to compare to the past. possible arguments:
Today is different from ten years ago or fifteen years ago - your argument 3
The result of a prediction made today can be opposite in the future, like:
*Whether people are going to shift over there or move out of there
*Population growth rate, population component...
*New industry, jobs, etc...
*Natural disasters like earth quake...