The following appeared in a letter to the editor of theBalmer Island Gazette.
"On Balmer Island, where mopeds serve as a popular form of transportation, the population increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by the island's moped rental companies from 50 per day to 25 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council will attain the 50 percent annual reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year on the neighboring island of Seaville, when Seaville's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
Even when the proposition made by the author of the letter could seem plausible at first glance, once we examine it deeply, we come across a series of flawed arguments, and some situations the author would have to resolve in order to reinforce and validate his position about limiting the mopeds rental.
First, the author claims that in order to abate the number of accidents related to mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer ought to limit the number of mopeds rented in the island. However he does not empower this statement by presenting any evidence that this would work in this particular situation. Also he needs to prove that accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians are at mopeds fault, while it could be due to other circumstances. Are the roads and vial infrastructure in optimum condition? Do the island roads counts with proper signs? Impoverished roads, lack of sidewalks or absence of transit signs can be a reason for these accidents in the first place, and including the factor that population increases in summer, would enlarge its numbers.
Second, he argues that since Seaville Island enforced similar limits, this would also work in Balmer. But the author does not take into account that annual results are not comparable to those of just one station of the year. What is the distribution of number of accidents trough the stations in Seaville? Is the percentage of accidents similar in both Islands during the summer? Does Seaville receive the same amount of visitors in that station? Quantifying these factors is necessary to bolster the author position.
Finally, the author does not present any data relating the differences and similarities between both islands. Are the Islands sizes similar? Is the population in Balmer close to the population in Seaville? Are the roads in the same conditions in both Islands? Is the usage of mopeds in Seaville close to the usage of them in Balmer? Without the evidence and comparison of the data of both cities, the claim that Seaville’s enforcement of a limit for mopeds rental will have the same results in Balmer is undermined.
To summarize, if the author does not answer these questions and provides the evidence necessary to fortify his position, this proposition to limit the usage of mopeds in the Island of Balmer will continue to be vitiated and pauperized by its flaws.
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argument 1 -- OK but should be more specific.
argument 2 and argument 3 can be put in one argument.
Suggested:
First question that needs to be asked in order to evaluate recommendation is what percent of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians occur during summertime and other seasons, and what is the difference between those.
The next question that needs to be asked is who is responsible for those accidents: pedestrians or moped drivers themselves.
The last and the most significant question that needs to be raised is whether the overall conditions on two islands are similar.
Attribute Value Ideal
Score: 3.5 out of 6
Category: Satisfactory Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 20 15
No. of Words: 394 350
No. of Characters: 1926 1500
No. of Different Words: 184 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.455 4.7
Average Word Length: 4.888 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.574 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 148 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 95 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 64 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 44 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 19.7 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 12.37 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.45 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.302 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.502 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.097 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5