The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice to a client.
"Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last year that region experienced 90 days with below-average temperatures, and climate forecasters at Waymarsh University predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes have been built in this region during the past year. Because these developments will certainly result in an increased demand for heating oil, we recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
The letter from a investment consulting company suggests that given the fact that the period of winter seems longer and people build more houses in the region, investors need to invest on Consolidated industries since the retail of home heating oil is involved, which is the necessaries for the residents in northern United States. The argument seems to be convincing and riveting in a cursory reading, but an in-depth analysis reveals several logical fallacies and loopholes that have rendered it untenable.
First, the author, on the basis of the information provided by climate forecasters, argue that the similar weather pattern will repeat in the following few years. However, oftentimes, the report from forecaster is inaccurate and particularly for the long-term prediction. The author need to provide the information whether the report is conducted for several forecasters or the large group discussion. As far as technology concerned, two or three climate forecasters cannot presage accurate reports due to the subjective opinion, which usually ignore inconsequential but essential details. So solely reply on the single forecaster report will result in unpredictable consequence.
Second, the argument assumes that many new homes have been built is equivalent to more people will demand the heating service, which will result in the increase on the consumption of heating oil. Yet author does not provide any convincing evidence that sales of heating oil will be at the rate of upswing as a result of more homes in the region. The author should conduct a survey on those people living in the newly built house to see whether they intend to use the heating. It is likely that people who lived in the new house do not need heating or they are not at home most of time.
Third, Consolidated Industries is a large sector, but home heating oil is just small business, which is part of the industry. It is too impetuous to invest in the market before more warranted information and evidence present. The author need to do more research on the explicit relation between the industry and the home heating oil. Assuming that the forecast is accurate, if the relation was extricate, investors would not have any and significant profits, which invalidate the argument.
In conclusion, the author's inference solely rely on the unproven assumptions and unconvincing evidence, which could be interpreted on the other way around and weaken the argument. To make the recommendation more reliable, it is categorical that the argument is at presence of justified evidence and information other than unwarranted assumptions.
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Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 1, column 17, Rule ID: EN_A_VS_AN
Message: Use 'an' instead of 'a' if the following word starts with a vowel sound, e.g. 'an article', 'an hour'
Suggestion: an
The letter from a investment consulting company suggests ...
^
Line 3, column 600, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
...uential but essential details. So solely reply on the single forecaster report wi...
^^
Line 7, column 395, Rule ID: BEEN_PART_AGREEMENT[1]
Message: Consider using a past participle here: 'extricated'.
Suggestion: extricated
...recast is accurate, if the relation was extricate, investors would not have any and signi...
^^^^^^^^^
Discourse Markers used:
['but', 'first', 'however', 'if', 'second', 'so', 'third', 'in conclusion', 'as a result']
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance in Part of Speech:
Nouns: 0.270967741935 0.25644967241 106% => OK
Verbs: 0.14623655914 0.15541462614 94% => OK
Adjectives: 0.0989247311828 0.0836205057962 118% => OK
Adverbs: 0.0430107526882 0.0520304965353 83% => OK
Pronouns: 0.0129032258065 0.0272364105082 47% => OK
Prepositions: 0.122580645161 0.125424944231 98% => OK
Participles: 0.0365591397849 0.0416121511921 88% => OK
Conjunctions: 2.90956664158 2.79052419416 104% => OK
Infinitives: 0.0215053763441 0.026700313972 81% => OK
Particles: 0.0 0.001811407834 0% => OK
Determiners: 0.118279569892 0.113004496875 105% => OK
Modal_auxiliary: 0.0193548387097 0.0255425247493 76% => OK
WH_determiners: 0.0172043010753 0.0127820249294 135% => OK
Vocabulary words and sentences:
No of characters: 2632.0 2731.13054187 96% => OK
No of words: 422.0 446.07635468 95% => OK
Chars per words: 6.23696682464 6.12365571057 102% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.53239876712 4.57801047555 99% => OK
words length more than 5 chars: 0.407582938389 0.378187486979 108% => OK
words length more than 6 chars: 0.308056872038 0.287650121315 107% => OK
words length more than 7 chars: 0.225118483412 0.208842608468 108% => OK
words length more than 8 chars: 0.151658767773 0.135150697306 112% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.90956664158 2.79052419416 104% => OK
Unique words: 217.0 207.018472906 105% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.514218009479 0.469332199767 110% => OK
Word variations: 57.9115195492 52.1807786196 111% => OK
How many sentences: 17.0 20.039408867 85% => OK
Sentence length: 24.8235294118 23.2022227129 107% => OK
Sentence length SD: 54.9761823232 57.7814097925 95% => OK
Chars per sentence: 154.823529412 141.986410481 109% => OK
Words per sentence: 24.8235294118 23.2022227129 107% => OK
Discourse Markers: 0.529411764706 0.724660767414 73% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.14285714286 97% => OK
Language errors: 3.0 3.58251231527 84% => OK
Readability: 55.6292166156 51.9672348444 107% => OK
Elegance: 2.12765957447 1.8405768891 116% => OK
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.32367766519 0.441005458295 73% => OK
Sentence sentence coherence: 0.138874375904 0.135418324435 103% => OK
Sentence sentence coherence SD: 0.0709420274681 0.0829849096947 85% => OK
Sentence paragraph coherence: 0.638934107121 0.58762219726 109% => OK
Sentence paragraph coherence SD: 0.11792014807 0.147661913831 80% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.152590433453 0.193483328276 79% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0610329917157 0.0970749176394 63% => OK
Paragraph paragraph coherence: 0.486852879263 0.42659136922 114% => OK
Paragraph paragraph coherence SD: 0.0225319546794 0.0774707102158 29% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.234884298788 0.312017818177 75% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0563809543853 0.0698173142475 81% => OK
Task Achievement:
Sentences with positive sentiment : 4.0 8.33743842365 48% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 5.0 6.87684729064 73% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 8.0 4.82512315271 166% => OK
Positive topic words: 4.0 6.46551724138 62% => OK
Negative topic words: 4.0 5.36822660099 75% => OK
Neutral topic words: 5.0 2.82389162562 177% => OK
Total topic words: 13.0 14.657635468 89% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
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Rates: 66.67 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 4.0 Out of 6 -- The score is based on the average performance of 20,000 argument essays. This e-grader is not smart enough to check on arguments.
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Note: This is not the final score. The e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.