The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice to a client."Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last year that region experienc

The argument concludes that client should start investing in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil. The conclusion is based on the presmise that demand for heating oil is going to increase in northeastern part of country due to lower temperature and increase households. The argument is logically flawed, however, as it relies on a number of assumptions that appear to be unsupported because of lack of appropriate evidence.

First, data for the average temperatures per year in northeastern region is required for the last few years. Also, evidence on number of days in a year when temperature is below average of that year is also required for the last few years. Without this information, it is difficult to analyse the impact of below average teamperature. The arguments claim of 90 days of below average temperature for last one year stands weak and unsupported. It provides no information on severity of the situation and requirement of heating oil unless past data on temperatures is provided. For example, it might be that in the past few years ( excluding the last one year ) number of days below average temperature were half ( say 45), but fall in temperature below average was very high compared to last one year; in that case energy consumption would have been more compared to last one year when though number of days of low temperature were more, but drop in temperature were less. Therefore, the argument stands unsupported without the information on past data.

Second, reliability of forecast has to be established. Information on demographic distribution of areas where forecast study was conducted is needed. It might be that study results were for United States as a whole; in that case temperature forecast in North Eastern could vary notably from National average. Besides, it could be that northeastern region was not even considered for the study; in that case argument stands stretched and unsupported. In addition, evidence on accuracy of past forecast of this group is needed. It might be that this group performing the forecast study is still novice and unexperienced; in that case it is imperative to provide evidence of any study of weather forecast in northeastern region.

Finally, the author also needs to provide information on increase in the households in the last years and should cite some data from survey showing the future trends in real estate sector in this region. It might be that in future there would not be much space of construction of new houses. Besides, some people might move out or migrate to other regions in future. without evidence on these points, it is difficult to predict the exact increase in demand. In addition, amount of investment required for unit increase in demand also needs to be quantified. without this information, it is difficult to measure the investment for industries.

In conclusion, the argument stands weak and unsupported because of number of assumptions and lack of evidence. Unless author provides sufficient information on various claims, argument stands weak and there is no reason to accept the conclusion in the argument.