The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice to a client.
"Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last year that region experienced 90 days with below-average temperatures, and climate forecasters at Waymarsh University predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes have been built in this region during the past year. Because these developments will certainly result in an increased demand for heating oil, we recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
The arguments aims to compel investors in investing in Consolidated Industires, a company which the author claims to have a major business operations in retial home heating oil market. But the argument relies on unsated assumptions and cannot be taken for granted unless these assumpitons are validated with proper evidence.
Firstly, the author does not provide any statistical evidence to back his/her statement regarding oil being the major fuel used by homes in northern United States for heating. What might be used traditionally cannot be assumed to stand true forever, with rising cost of oil and its climatic affects people may opt for electric heating systems.
Further the author cites Waymarsh University's forecast in claiming that below-average tempratures will exist for comming years too. Again here the author fails to provide any evidence of how Waymish University came to this conclusion, and under what circumstance this prediction will hold true.
Additionally the argument only specifies one bussiness intrest of Consolidated Indsustries, and then expecting investors to invest in this bussiness is an illogical assumption. The author has failed to mention any evidence as to how much market share Cosolidated Insdustries owns in home heating oil market, also what other are the other areas of bussiness for Consolidated Indsutries.
Finally, the author makes too many assumptions without providing any strong evidence. In its present form the argument does not make a compelling case for investors to invest in Cosolidated Industires, the author would benefit by citing more statistical evidence and by giving a comprehsive coverage of bussiness activities of Consildiated Industires.
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argument 1 -- not OK
argument 2 -- not OK
argument 3 -- OK
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flaws:
In GRE, we have to accept all data or evidence are true. It is important to find out loopholes behind surveys or studies. Loopholes mean that we accept all surveys told are true, but there are some conditions applied, for example:
It works for time A (10 years ago), but it doesn't mean it works for time B (nowadays).
It works for location A (a city, community, nation), but it doesn't mean it works for location B (another city, community, nation).
It works for people A (a manager), but it doesn't mean it works for people B (a worker).
It works for event A (one event, project... ), but it doesn't mean it works for event B (another event, project...).
for example: we accept that this weather pattern will continue for several more years, but maybe people in the future will use electricity as their major fuel for heating not oil.
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Attribute Value Ideal
Score: 2.0 out of 6
Category: Poor Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 10 15
No. of Words: 261 350
No. of Characters: 1424 1500
No. of Different Words: 158 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.019 4.7
Average Word Length: 5.456 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.922 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 115 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 87 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 64 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 47 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 26.1 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 7.556 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.6 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.411 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.723 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.087 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5