A recent sales study indicates that consumption of seafood dishes in Bay City restaurants has increased by 30 percent during the past five years. Yet there are no currently operating city restaurants whose specialty is seafood. Moreover, the majority of f

In this argument, the author is of the opinion that the newly opened Captain Seafood restaurant, whose speciality is seafood, would be a popular and a highly profitable business. To buttress this claim, the author cites a recent sales study which indicates thirty percent rise in consumption of seafood dished in Bay City during past five years. Additionally, the author points out the fact that Bay City presently has no seafood speciality restaurants. At first glance, the argument appears convincing. However, closer examination indicates that the argument is greatly flawed due to its poor reasoning and lack of substantial evidence.

Firstly, the author believes that seafood consumption in Bay City would continue to increase in future. This assumption is based on a recent sales study that indicates thirty percent rise in seafood dishes over past five years. Mathematically speaking, the probability of this continual increasing trend is half and equal to the probability of decreasing. In short, this assumption is prone to error.

Secondly, the author assumes that Captain Seafood restaurant would be profitable. This assumption lacks any basis. Furthermore, the fact that Bay City currently has no seafood speciality restaurants further belies author’s assumption. It is quite likely that seafood speciality restaurants have high running costs and moderate income, effectively making little or no profit.

Lastly, the author assumes that two-income families, who are health conscious, would prefer to dine at seafood restaurants. This assumption appears far-fetched. It may happen that such health conscious families prefer less-calorific, highly nutritious meals at other restaurants.

In conclusion, this argument is logically unconvincing because of its poor reasoning and lack of substantial evidence. To strengthen it, the author should provide precise evidence that suggests seafood consumption would increase in future, seafood restaurants would be profitable and two-income, health conscious families would prefer having seafood meals.