The following appeared in a memo to the board of directors of a company that specializes in the delivery of heating oil.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season, that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we can safely predict that this region will experience an increased demand for heating oil during the next five years."
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
The letter indicates that the demand for heating oil will be greater and more stable during the next five years. The argument is based upon several facts which are not so persuasive, because, the passage seriously lacks the strong connection between the different parts of the passage. Hence, in order to be sure about the prediction, this passage must contain much more information, which will help to conclude properly. Otherwise, the mentioned company ventures to have financial problems because of an unfulfilled forecast.
First of all, the author of the text says about the weather forecast, it is undoubtable fact that weather forecasts are one of the most upredictible things in the world. So, the same logic is applicable to this situation. To base financial prediction upon weather forecast is quite risky business. Moreover, the passage states about the only last year, and there is no any information on which weather data the mentioned forecasters rely upon. Probably, these forecasters are not so competient in this business, and in order to be sure about their forecasts, it will be much more helpful and useful to look at their previous forecasts and conclude whether the forecasts came true or not. Perphaps, it will add more assurance to this situation, but still, the prediction about the future, espcially about the weather, it is always rather risky.
Even if the forecasts came true, and really, there was a lot of scientific data that the very cold period will come, it is not enough arguments to conclude that demand for heating oil will grow. The passage states that in the respond to the recent population growth many new homes were build. However, it has no word about the heating system in these homes. Perhaps, they will be heated with the help of a new heating system, and there will not be any need to buy heating oil. Especially, considering the situation with eco trend in the world. It is easy to propose that the new homes will be heated by innovating system of heating, which does not require oil. Hence, the information about new houses will be critical to conclude about the financial forecast.
Moreover, the passage lacks the information whether these new houses are bougth or not. It could be easily true that these houses are not occupied at all, and this argument adds more diffidence than assurance.
To sum up, the argument is quite shaky and unpersuasive, it seriously lacks additional evidence to conclude. In order to be sure about the forecast, the author should provide much more certain information about all aspect of the mentioned situation. Otherwise, it ventures to have unfulfilled prediction.
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Comments
Essay evaluation report
is quite risky business
is a quite risky business
Sentence: First of all, the author of the text says about the weather forecast, it is undoubtable fact that weather forecasts are one of the most upredictible things in the world.
Error: undoubtable Suggestion: No alternate word
Error: upredictible Suggestion: predictable
Sentence: Probably, these forecasters are not so competient in this business, and in order to be sure about their forecasts, it will be much more helpful and useful to look at their previous forecasts and conclude whether the forecasts came true or not.
Error: competient Suggestion: competent
Sentence: Perphaps, it will add more assurance to this situation, but still, the prediction about the future, espcially about the weather, it is always rather risky.
Error: espcially Suggestion: especially
Sentence: Especially, considering the situation with eco trend in the world.
Error: eco Suggestion: No alternate word
Sentence: Moreover, the passage lacks the information whether these new houses are bougth or not.
Error: bougth Suggestion: bought
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argument 1 -- not exactly. In GRE/GMAT, we have to accept all data or evidence are true. It is important to find out loopholes behind surveys or studies.
argument 2 -- OK
argument 3 -- can be put on argument 2
----------------
Let's analyze the structure of the statement and argue accordingly:
condition 1:
Last heating season, that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. //two loopholes: 1. how about other days (not those 90 days)? maybe they are above-normal temperatures. The author did not mention any statistics of last year oil consumption. 2. people may have found new ways to fight against cold in those 90 days
condition 2:
Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. years. //your argument 2
conclusion:
Because of these trends, we can safely predict that this region will experience an increased demand for heating oil during the next five years. //1. need to make sure the weather pattern will continue in next five years. 2. need to make sure there is no other alternative heating fuel (or electricity heating) to replace heating oil. 3. need to make sure the population will grow too
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Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 3.5 out of 6
Category: Satisfactory Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 1 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 6 2
No. of Sentences: 22 15
No. of Words: 442 350
No. of Characters: 2148 1500
No. of Different Words: 188 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.585 4.7
Average Word Length: 4.86 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.517 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 145 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 113 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 79 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 52 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 20.091 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 8.565 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.545 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.31 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.506 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.048 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 3, column 367, Rule ID: NOW[2]
Message: Did you mean 'now' (=at this moment) instead of 'no' (negation)?
Suggestion: now
... about the only last year, and there is no any information on which weather data t...
^^
Line 5, column 224, Rule ID: A_INFINITVE[1]
Message: Probably a wrong construction: a/the + infinitive
...l will grow. The passage states that in the respond to the recent population growth many ne...
^^^^^^^^^^^
Line 5, column 462, Rule ID: BUY_VBG[1]
Message: Did you mean 'by'?
Suggestion: by
...stem, and there will not be any need to buy heating oil. Especially, considering th...
^^^
Discourse Markers used:
['but', 'first', 'hence', 'however', 'if', 'look', 'moreover', 'really', 'so', 'still', 'first of all', 'to sum up']
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance in Part of Speech:
Nouns: 0.200803212851 0.25644967241 78% => OK
Verbs: 0.136546184739 0.15541462614 88% => OK
Adjectives: 0.110441767068 0.0836205057962 132% => OK
Adverbs: 0.0843373493976 0.0520304965353 162% => OK
Pronouns: 0.0261044176707 0.0272364105082 96% => OK
Prepositions: 0.106425702811 0.125424944231 85% => OK
Participles: 0.0200803212851 0.0416121511921 48% => Some participles wanted.
Conjunctions: 2.6242510468 2.79052419416 94% => OK
Infinitives: 0.0341365461847 0.026700313972 128% => OK
Particles: 0.00200803212851 0.001811407834 111% => OK
Determiners: 0.120481927711 0.113004496875 107% => OK
Modal_auxiliary: 0.0261044176707 0.0255425247493 102% => OK
WH_determiners: 0.00803212851406 0.0127820249294 63% => OK
Vocabulary words and sentences:
No of characters: 2663.0 2731.13054187 98% => OK
No of words: 442.0 446.07635468 99% => OK
Chars per words: 6.02488687783 6.12365571057 98% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.58517132086 4.57801047555 100% => OK
words length more than 5 chars: 0.348416289593 0.378187486979 92% => OK
words length more than 6 chars: 0.262443438914 0.287650121315 91% => OK
words length more than 7 chars: 0.192307692308 0.208842608468 92% => OK
words length more than 8 chars: 0.14479638009 0.135150697306 107% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.6242510468 2.79052419416 94% => OK
Unique words: 207.0 207.018472906 100% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.468325791855 0.469332199767 100% => OK
Word variations: 51.897890605 52.1807786196 99% => OK
How many sentences: 22.0 20.039408867 110% => OK
Sentence length: 20.0909090909 23.2022227129 87% => OK
Sentence length SD: 46.5623193879 57.7814097925 81% => OK
Chars per sentence: 121.045454545 141.986410481 85% => OK
Words per sentence: 20.0909090909 23.2022227129 87% => OK
Discourse Markers: 0.545454545455 0.724660767414 75% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.14285714286 97% => OK
Language errors: 3.0 3.58251231527 84% => OK
Readability: 46.3352529823 51.9672348444 89% => OK
Elegance: 1.32520325203 1.8405768891 72% => OK
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.418795293245 0.441005458295 95% => OK
Sentence sentence coherence: 0.113897278035 0.135418324435 84% => OK
Sentence sentence coherence SD: 0.05530399956 0.0829849096947 67% => OK
Sentence paragraph coherence: 0.554765700545 0.58762219726 94% => OK
Sentence paragraph coherence SD: 0.115608550783 0.147661913831 78% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.179757902275 0.193483328276 93% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0908330450778 0.0970749176394 94% => OK
Paragraph paragraph coherence: 0.383375775009 0.42659136922 90% => OK
Paragraph paragraph coherence SD: 0.167060354486 0.0774707102158 216% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.28944988053 0.312017818177 93% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.101010981 0.0698173142475 145% => OK
Task Achievement:
Sentences with positive sentiment : 10.0 8.33743842365 120% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 8.0 6.87684729064 116% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 4.0 4.82512315271 83% => OK
Positive topic words: 9.0 6.46551724138 139% => OK
Negative topic words: 3.0 5.36822660099 56% => OK
Neutral topic words: 2.0 2.82389162562 71% => OK
Total topic words: 14.0 14.657635468 96% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
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Rates: 83.33 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 5.0 Out of 6 -- The score is based on the average performance of 20,000 argument essays. This e-grader is not smart enough to check on arguments.
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.