The following appeared in a memo from the director of student housing at Buckingham College."To serve the housing needs of our students, Buckingham College should build a number of new dormitories. Buckingham's enrollment is growing and, based on current

This argument concludes that Buckingham College should build a number of new dormitories in order to fit the housing needs of its students. It is based on the promises that Buckingham's enrollment is growing and, based on current trends, will double over the next 50 years, thus making existing dormitory space inadequate, that he average rent for an apartment in our town has risen in recent years, that students will find it increasingly difficult to afford off-campus housing, and that attractive new dormitories would make prospective students more likely to enroll at Buckingham. However, it is logically flawed. There are many missing evidence needed sa as to evaluate the argument. And they are explained in the following paragraphs.

First, the trend of enrollment increasing is needed to be verified. There are hardly any tendency which have not been changeless for a long time. Therefore, if the trend is changed, the memo will probably be wrong. For example, the tend could be reverse in the future and number the students at that time will be less than it now. The recommendation will surely be useless.

Second, as the same reason, the tendency that the average rent for an apartment in our town will keep rising should be certified. If it is not rising anymore, students will be easlier to find an apartment off campus. As a consquence, the building of new dormitories is unnecessary.

Third, the fact that students will find it increasingly difficult to afford off-campus housing needed futher testimony. Even with the assumption that the average rent for an apartment will rise continuously, this statement can be false. Howabout the rents of apartments for family are rising but, on the other hand, the average price of student housing are decreasing? In this situation, students will find it more easily to afford off-campus housing. And the conclusion will be vacuous.

Forth, the point that attractive new dormitories would make prospective students more likely to enroll at Buckingham has to be testified. There may be some students will be attracted by new, beautiful, and well-furnitured dormitories, while others may be fascinated by good study environment, well-designed campus, or hard-working classmates. The crucial reason of increasing erollment is still left uncertain. That is, why enrollment grows without new builded dormitories? This question is the most important key to further increase the number of students, and the point is still worth doubt.

In the end, the argument is rather weak. However, if the evidences that the trend of enrollment will be increasing, that the tendency that the average rent for an apartment in our town will keep rising, that students will find it increasingly difficult to afford off-campus housing, and that attractive new dormitories would make prospective students more likely to enroll at Buckingham be proved to be true, it will be greatly reinforced. Hence, without these further facts, the argument is hardly to be accepted.