The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.
"On Balmer Island, where mopeds serve as a popular form of transportation, the population increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by the island's moped rental companies from 50 per day to 25 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council will attain the 50 percent annual reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year on the neighboring island of Seaville, when Seaville's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
In a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette, the writer suggests reducing the number of moped rentals by a factor of half during the summer season. According to the writer, doing so will reduce the number of annual moped accidents by 50 percent, because a similar action had similar results in the neighboring island of Seaville. However, before taking any actions according to the recommendation, there are a few key questions that need to be answered.
First, do a majority of moped accidents take place in the summer season? The writer assumes so, and therefore suggests that controlling the accidents in summers only will bring down the number of annual accidents significantly. However, we do not know if the summers contributes to a majority of accidents in the first place. It might be the case that equal or even more number of mishaps take place in other seasons. Maybe in monsoons, the accident rate is higher because of the wet roads. A similar affect could have been in the winters because of snowfall, which causes slippery roads. The writer also argues that the population increasing in the summers implies a higher accident rate in that season. However, we are not given the initial population to check if the percent population growth is significant. Therefore, answering this question is very important to evaluate the recommendation.
Second, does an increase in population imply an increase in accidents? Even if we accept that the population increases significantly in the summer season, the writer provides no argument or evidence relating it with the number of accidents. It may be possible that with the increase in population, the average speeds of the vehicles come down and hence, resulting in a decrease in vehicle-related accidents. We can not make proper assessment unless we are given a bifurcated accident data for all seasons. If indeed we find that with the increase in population, the number of accidents goes up, we can give some credit to the suggestion and try to evaluate it further. On the other hand, if that is not the case, the argument will completely lose its merit.
Finally, is something that works for Seaville, guaranteed to work for the Balmer Island? This is another assumption that the writer makes. He asserts that because decreasing the number of moped rentals reduced the number of accidents in Seaville, it will have a same affect in Balmer as well. However, this might not necessarily be true as the reasons behind accidents might be completely different for the two places. Maybe it's just that the road network is not adequate in Seaville which is the prime cause of accidents. In that case, reducing the number of mopeds will only be a superficial solution, where a deep rooted cause needs to be eliminated. A proper survey of the reasons behind the accidents needs to be conducted before moving on with the recommendation. The writer's argument will not hold water if there are other reasons significantly increasing the number of accidents in the Balmer Island.
The above questions show that the writer's argument as it stands now, is fallacious because of its several stated and unstated assumptions. If any of these assumptions is proven unwarranted, the writer's suggestion will be severely weakened. Therefore, more evidence, along with a more cogent line of argument is required to find out measures for curbing the accident rate in the Balmer Island.
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Comments
Essay evaluation report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 4.0 out of 6
Category: Good Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 29 15
No. of Words: 571 350
No. of Characters: 2796 1500
No. of Different Words: 240 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.888 4.7
Average Word Length: 4.897 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.716 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 222 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 152 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 111 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 64 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 19.69 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 5.89 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.655 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.292 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.468 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.106 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 1, column 141, Rule ID: THE_FALL_SEASON[1]
Message: Use simply 'summer'.
Suggestion: summer
...oped rentals by a factor of half during the summer season. According to the writer, doing so will...
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Line 5, column 55, Rule ID: THE_FALL_SEASON[1]
Message: Use simply 'summer'.
Suggestion: summer
...jority of moped accidents take place in the summer season? The writer assumes so, and therefore s...
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Line 9, column 137, Rule ID: THE_FALL_SEASON[1]
Message: Use simply 'summer'.
Suggestion: summer
...e population increases significantly in the summer season, the writer provides no argument or evi...
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Line 13, column 268, Rule ID: AFFECT_EFFECT[1]
Message: Did you mean 'effect'?
Suggestion: effect
...idents in Seaville, it will have a same affect in Balmer as well. However, this might not...
^^^^^^^^^
Line 13, column 775, Rule ID: POSSESIVE_APOSTROPHE[1]
Message: Possible typo: apostrophe is missing. Did you mean 'writers'' or 'writer's'?
Suggestion: writers'; writer's
... moving on with the recommendation. The writers argument will not hold water if there a...
^^^^^^^
Line 17, column 35, Rule ID: POSSESIVE_APOSTROPHE[1]
Message: Possible typo: apostrophe is missing. Did you mean 'writers'' or 'writer's'?
Suggestion: writers'; writer's
... The above questions show that the writers argument as it stands now, is fallaciou...
^^^^^^^
Line 17, column 195, Rule ID: POSSESIVE_APOSTROPHE[1]
Message: Possible typo: apostrophe is missing. Did you mean 'writers'' or 'writer's'?
Suggestion: writers'; writer's
... assumptions is proven unwarranted, the writers suggestion will be severely weakened. T...
^^^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, but, finally, first, hence, however, if, may, second, so, therefore, well, in the first place, on the other hand
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 25.0 19.6327345309 127% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 15.0 12.9520958084 116% => OK
Conjunction : 6.0 11.1786427146 54% => More conjunction wanted.
Relative clauses : 18.0 13.6137724551 132% => OK
Pronoun: 36.0 28.8173652695 125% => Less pronouns wanted
Preposition: 78.0 55.5748502994 140% => OK
Nominalization: 23.0 16.3942115768 140% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2875.0 2260.96107784 127% => OK
No of words: 571.0 441.139720559 129% => OK
Chars per words: 5.0350262697 5.12650576532 98% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.88831323574 4.56307096286 107% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.8197365389 2.78398813304 101% => OK
Unique words: 246.0 204.123752495 121% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.430823117338 0.468620217663 92% => More unique words wanted or less content wanted.
syllable_count: 919.8 705.55239521 130% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 10.0 4.96107784431 202% => Less pronouns wanted as sentence beginning.
Article: 13.0 8.76447105788 148% => OK
Subordination: 6.0 2.70958083832 221% => Less adverbial clause wanted.
Conjunction: 1.0 1.67365269461 60% => OK
Preposition: 6.0 4.22255489022 142% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 29.0 19.7664670659 147% => OK
Sentence length: 19.0 22.8473053892 83% => The Avg. Sentence Length is relatively short.
Sentence length SD: 34.2868226422 57.8364921388 59% => The essay contains lots of sentences with the similar length. More sentence varieties wanted.
Chars per sentence: 99.1379310345 119.503703932 83% => OK
Words per sentence: 19.6896551724 23.324526521 84% => OK
Discourse Markers: 4.06896551724 5.70786347227 71% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 7.0 5.25449101796 133% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 9.0 8.20758483034 110% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 15.0 6.88822355289 218% => Less negative sentences wanted.
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 5.0 4.67664670659 107% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.254927004983 0.218282227539 117% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0719603996739 0.0743258471296 97% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0819687887031 0.0701772020484 117% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.152970778036 0.128457276422 119% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0670249809155 0.0628817314937 107% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 12.2 14.3799401198 85% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 52.19 48.3550499002 108% => OK
smog_index: 3.1 7.1628742515 43% => Smog_index is low.
flesch_kincaid_grade: 10.7 12.197005988 88% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 11.95 12.5979740519 95% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 7.9 8.32208582834 95% => OK
difficult_words: 120.0 98.500998004 122% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 10.5 12.3882235529 85% => OK
gunning_fog: 9.6 11.1389221557 86% => OK
text_standard: 11.0 11.9071856287 92% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 58.33 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 3.5 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.